相关论文: A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain ep…

We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses. In this model, vectors remain local to…

Impulsive control is used to suppress the chaotic behavior in an one-dimensional discrete supply and demand dynamical system. By perturbing periodically the state variable with constant impulses, the chaos can be suppressed. It is proved…

We consider a predator-prey population model with prey gathering together for defense purposes. A transmissible unrecoverable disease affects the prey. We characterize the system behavior, establishing that ultimately either only the…

Chaotic evolutions exhibit exponential sensitivity to initial conditions. This suggests that even very small perturbations resulting from weak coupling of a quantum chaotic environment to the position of a system whose state is a non-local…

Managing infectious diseases is a world public health issue, plagued by uncertainties. In this paper, we analyze the problem of viable control of a dengue outbreak under uncertainty. For this purpose, we develop a controlled Ross-Macdonald…

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Medical statistics reveal a significant dependence of hospitalized dengue patient on the patient's age. To incorporate an age-dependence into a mathematical model, we extend the classical ODE system of disease dynamics to a PDE system. The…

We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…

Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in…

The idea that chaos could be a useful tool for analyze nonlinear systems considered in this paper and for the first time the two time scale property of singularly perturbed systems is analyzed on chaotic attractor. The general idea…

It is increasingly important to understand the spatial dynamics of epidemics. While there are numerous mathematical models of epidemics, there is a scarcity of physical systems with sufficiently well-controlled parameters to allow…

An adverse drug effect (ADE) is any harmful event resulting from medical drug treatment. Despite their importance, ADEs are often under-reported in official channels. Some research has therefore turned to detecting discussions of ADEs in…

Chaotic itinerancy is a frequently observed phenomenon in high-dimensional and nonlinear dynamical systems, and it is characterized by the random transitions among multiple quasi-attractors. Several studies have revealed that chaotic…

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

In two previous papers, I introduced SuperSpreader (SS) epidemic models, offered some theoretical discussion of prevention issues, and fitted some models to data derived from published accounts of the ongoing MERS epidemic (concluding that…

Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…

Reliable and timely dengue predictions provide actionable lead time for targeted vector control and clinical preparedness, reducing preventable diseases and health-system costs in at-risk communities. Dengue forecasting often relies on…

Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dynamic effects arise from changes in a parameter that are…