相关论文: A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain ep…

Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…

Systems whose time evolutions are entirely deterministic can nevertheless be studied probabilistically, i.e. in terms of the evolution of probability distributions rather than individual trajectories. This approach is central to the…

Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex…

In Xu and Zhao (2015), the global attractivity of positive constant steady state is established through the application of the fluctuation method, subject to the sufficient condition that the disease will stabilized at the unique…

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted from an infected human to an Aedes mosquito, during a blood-meal. Dengue is still a major public health problem. A model for the disease transmission is presented, composed by human and…

Different pathogens spreading in the same host population often generate complex co-circulation dynamics because of the many possible interactions between the pathogens and the host immune system, the host life cycle, and the space…

Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…

We study an SEIQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered) model for an infectious disease, with time delays for latency and an asymptomatic phase. For fast pandemics where nobody has prior immunity and everyone has immunity…

We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…

Dengue is an infectious disease which poses significant socioeconomic and disease burden in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This work aims to provide additional insight into the association between dengue and climate in…

Classical epidemiology has focused on the control of confounding but it is only recently that epidemiologists have started to focus on the bias produced by colliders. A collider for a certain pair of variables (e.g., an outcome Y and an…

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is…

Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…

We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on…

The spread of infectious diseases, rumors, fashions, innovations are complex contagion processes, embedded both in networked and spatial contexts. Here we investigate the pattern dynamics of a complex contagion, where two agents, say $A$…

The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…

We study the qualitative properties of a spatial diffusive heterogeneous SIR model, that appears in mathematical epidemiology to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a population. The model we consider consists in a system of…

Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its…

The effects of demographic stochasticity in the long term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour…

In this paper, we study the problem of multiple change-point detection for a univariate sequence under the epidemic setting, where the behavior of the sequence alternates between a common normal state and different epidemic states. This is…