相关论文: A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain ep…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…
We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
We present an SI epidemic model whereby a continuous variable captures variability in proliferative potential and resistance to infection among susceptibles. The occurrence of heritable, spontaneous changes in these phenotype and the…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak…
The present paper points out to a novel scenario for formation of chaotic attractors in a class of models of excitable cell membranes near an Andronov-Hopf bifurcation (AHB). The mechanism underlying chaotic dynamics admits a simple and…
We consider a model for an influenza-like disease, in which, between seasons, the virus makes a random genetic drift $\delta$, (reducing immunity by the factor $\delta$) and obtains a new random transmissibility $\tau$ (closely related to…
In this work we present analytical and numerical evidences that classical integrable models possessing infinitely many degrees of freedom unexpectedly exhibit some features that are typical of chaotic systems. By studying how the conserved…
The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying…
We present a new chaotic system of three coupled ordinary differential equations, limited to quadratic nonlinear terms. A wide variety of dynamical regimes are reported. For some parameters, chaotic reversals of the amplitudes are produced…
We investigate an interacting particle system inspired by the gypsy moth, whose populations grow until they become sufficiently dense so that an epidemic reduces them to a low level. We consider this process on a random 3-regular graph and…
The complex spatiotemporal patterns of atmospheric flows resulting from the cooperative existence of fluctuations ranging in size from millimeters to thousands of kilometers are found to exhibit long-range spatial and temporal correlations…
We propose an SEIR model for the populations and an SEI model for the vector to describe the transmission dynamics of a four-strain model with both primary and secondary dengue infections. In order to accomplish this, we propose and obtain…
We study the influence of a correlated disorder on the localization phase transition in the pinning model. When correlations are strong enough, a strong disorder regime arises: large and frequent attractive regions appear in the…
We study a model of binary decisions in a fully connected network of interacting agents. Individual decisions are determined by social influence, coming from direct interactions with neighbours, and a group level pressure that accounts for…
Different strains competing for a common pool of susceptible individuals is a key problem in mathematical epidemiology. To address this problem, we investigate a two-strain model within a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) framework.…
We consider here the resource budget model of plant energy resources, which characterizes the ecological alternate bearing phenomenon in fruit crops, in which high and low yields occur in alternate years. The resource budget model is a…
Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection can involve all immune system components and can result in different disease outcomes. The antibiotic TB drugs require strict adherence to prevent both disease relapse and mutation of drug- and…
Dengue fever is a disease which is transmitted and caused by Aedes Aegypti mosquitos. Dengue has become a serious health issue in all over the world especially in those countries who are situated in tropical or subtropical regions because…