种群与进化
In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of…
In this letter we study the temporal evolution of the Sars-Cov-2 in Italy. The time window of the real data is between February 24 and March 25. After we upgrade the data until April 1.We perform the analysis with 4 different model and we…
We present numerical results obtained from the modelling of a stochastic, highly connected and mobile community. The spread of attributes like health, disease among the community members is simulated using cellular automata on a planar 2…
The resurgence of measles is largely attributed to the decline in vaccine adoption and the increase in mobility. Although the vaccine for measles is readily available and highly successful, its current adoption is not adequate to prevent…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
Knowing COVID-19 epidemiological distributions, such as the time from patient admission to death, is directly relevant to effective primary and secondary care planning, and moreover, the mathematical modelling of the pandemic generally. We…
This manuscript contains nothing new, but synthesizes known results: For the theoretical population geneticist with a probabilistic background, we provide a summary of some key results on stochastic differential equations. For the…
The nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020, aimed at suppressing the spread of the COVID-19 disease, was extended until 31 May 2020 in three subsequent orders by the Government of India. The extended lockdown has had significant social…
This article aims at exploring the short-wavelength stabilization and destabilization of the advection-diffusion systems formulated using the Patlak-Keller-Segel cross-diffusion. We study a model of the taxis partly driven by an external…
The COVID-19 Pandemic has been described as the global challenge of our time, an enormous human tragedy with dramatic economic impacts. This paper describes the response and expected recovery process for Western Australia, where a rapid and…
Transmission risk of air-borne diseases in public transportation systems is a concern. The paper proposes a modified Wells-Riley model for risk analysis in public transportation systems to capture the passenger flow characteristics,…
The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…
treePL uses a penalised likelihood approach to produce a dated phylogeny in a maximum likelihood framework. Since its publication in 2012, few resources have been developed to explain how to use it properly. In this guide, I provide a…
The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a…
When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread…
Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…
In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…
Governments around the world have implemented preventive measures against the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In this study, we consider a multivariate discrete-time Markov model to analyze the propagation of COVID-19 across…
Contact tracing is an effective method to control emerging diseases. Since the 1980's, mathematical modelers are developing a consistent theory for contact tracing, with the aim to find effective and efficient implementations of contact…
The COVID-19 pandemic led several countries to resort to social distancing, the only known way to slow down the spread of the virus and keep the health system under control. Here we use an individual based model (IBM) to study how the…