种群与进化
The last leg of the year 2019 gave rise to a virus named COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019). Since the beginning of this infection in India, the government implemented several policies and restrictions to curtail its spread among the…
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…
Neutral models which assume ecological equivalence between species provide null models for community assembly. In Hubbell's Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity (UNTB), many local communities are connected to a single metacommunity…
Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…
The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally that took place from August 7-16 was one of the largest public gatherings since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over 460,000 visitors from across the United States travelled to Sturgis, South Dakota to…
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the effects of anti-infection behavior on the equilibrium states of an infectious disease. The anti-infection behavior is incorporated into a classical epidemiological SIR model, by considering the…
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…
The spread of synthetic gene drives is often discussed in the context of panmictic populations connected by gene flow and described with simple deterministic models. Under such assumptions, an entire species could be altered by releasing a…
The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical…
We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with…
Social interaction between microbes can be described at many levels of details, ranging from the biochemistry of cell-cell interactions to the ecological dynamics of populations. Choosing the best level to model microbial communities…
Mobility restrictions - travel advisories, trade and travel bans, border closures and, in extreme cases, area quarantines or cordons sanitaires - are among the most widely used measures to control infectious diseases. Restrictions of this…
The complexity of an ecological community can be distilled into a network, where diverse interactions connect species in a web of dependencies. Species interact not only with each other but indirectly through environmental effects, however…
The classical fold bifurcation is a paradigmatic example of a critical transition. It has been used in a variety of contexts, including in particular ecology and climate science, to motivate the role of slow recovery rates and increased…
Dengue fever impacts populations across the tropics. Dengue is caused by a mosquito transmitted flavivirus and its burden is projected to increase under future climate and development scenarios. The transmission process of dengue virus is…
In June 2020, Arizona, U.S., emerged as one of the world's worst coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) spots after the stay-at-home order was lifted in the middle of May. However, with the decisions to reimpose restrictions, the number of…
Vegetation patterns are a characteristic feature of semi-deserts occurring on all continents except Antarctica. In some semi-arid regions, the climate is characterised by seasonality, which yields a synchronisation of seed dispersal with…
The special epistemic characteristics of the COVID-19, such as the long incubation period and the infection through asymptomatic cases, put severe challenge to the containment of its outbreak. By the end of March 2020, China has…
In this work, some new exact and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for the SIR epidemic model, which is formulated in terms of dimensionless variables and parameters. The susceptibles population (S) is in this way explicitly…
Following the highly restrictive measures adopted by many countries for combating the current pandemic, the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the associated number of deaths is steadily decreasing. This fact, together with…