种群与进化

Evolutionary game theory has proven to be an elegant framework providing many fruitful insights in population dynamics and human behaviour. Here, we focus on the aspect of behavioural plasticity and its effect on the evolution of…

Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region, including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expanding economic activity, including a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As a result, the risk…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging every part of society. From a scientific point of view the first major task is to predict the dynamics of the pandemic, allowing governments to allocate proper resources and measures to fight it,…

We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…

In this paper we develop a SIR epidemiological model with parameters calculated according to existing data at the time of writing (24/03/2020); the data is from Italy, South Korea and Colombia, the model is then used to project the…

In phylogenetics it is of interest for rate matrix sets to satisfy closure under matrix multiplication as this makes finding the set of corresponding transition matrices possible without having to compute matrix exponentials. It is also…

We use analytical methods to investigate a continuous vaccination strategy effects on the infectious disease dynamics in a closed population and a demographically open population. The methodology and key assumptions are based on Breda et al…

Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported…

Motivated by the need for novel robust approaches to modelling the Covid-19 epidemic, this paper treats a population of $N$ individuals as an inhomogeneous random social network (IRSN). The nodes of the network represent different types of…

COVID-19 is an emerging respiratory infectious disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. It was first reported on in early December 2019 in Wuhan, China and within three month spread as a pandemic around the whole globe. Here, we study…

Some of the key questions of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic (and all outbreaks) include: where did the disease start, how is it spreading, who is at risk, and how to control the spread. There are a large number of complex factors…

COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented global health crisis in the last 100 years. Its economic, social and health impact continues to grow and is likely to end up as one of the worst global disasters since the 1918 pandemic and the…

Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population…

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…

The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later…

Recently described stochastic models of protein evolution have demonstrated that the inclusion of structural information in addition to amino acid sequences leads to a more reliable estimation of evolutionary parameters. We present a…

Cyclic dominance offers not just a way to maintain biodiversity, but also serves as a sort of defensive alliance against an external invader. Interestingly, a new level of competition can be observed when two cyclic loops are present. Here…

The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…

The recent worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has opened up new challenges to the research community. Artificial intelligence (AI) driven methods can be useful to predict the parameters, risks, and effects of such an…