统计理论

This paper develops a theory of distribution- and time-uniform asymptotics, culminating in the first large-sample anytime-valid inference procedures that are shown to be uniformly valid in a rich class of distributions. Historically,…

The proportional hazards model has been extensively used in many fields such as biomedicine to estimate and perform statistical significance testing on the effects of covariates influencing the survival time of patients. The classical…

While Kolmogorov's probability axioms are widely recognized, it is less well known that in an often-overlooked 1930 note, Kolmogorov proposed an axiomatic framework for a unifying concept of the mean -- referred to as regular means. This…

Posterior tempering reduces the influence of the likelihood in the calculation of the posterior by raising the likelihood to a fractional power $\alpha$. The resulting power posterior - also known as an $\alpha$-posterior or fractional…

Sarmanov copulas offer a simple and tractable way to build multivariate distributions by perturbing the independence copula. They admit closed-form expressions for densities and many functionals of interest, making them attractive for…

Non-linear statistical inverse problems pose major challenges both for statistical analysis and computation. Likelihood-based estimators typically lead to non-convex and possibly multimodal optimization landscapes, and Markov chain Monte…

Entropically regularized optimal transport between probability measures supported on compact subsets of Euclidean space admits a representation as an information projection under moment inequality constraints. Exploiting this structure, I…

The Bayes linear estimator is derived by minimizing the Bayes risk with respect to the squared loss function. Non-unbiased estimators such as ordinary ridge, typical shrinkage, fractional rank, and restricted least squares estimators, as…

Asymptotically unbiased priors, introduced by Hartigan (1965), are designed to achieve second-order unbiasedness of Bayes estimators. This paper extends Hartigan's framework to non-i.i.d. models by deriving a system of partial differential…

Quantum tomography involves obtaining a full classical description of a prepared quantum state from experimental results. We propose a Langevin sampler for quantum tomography, that relies on a new formulation of Bayesian quantum tomography…

We consider a $d$-dimensional continuous martingale $X(t)$ with quadratic variation matrix $\langle X\rangle_t=\int_0^t \Sigma(s)\,ds$ and develop tests for the rank of its spot covariance matrix $\Sigma(t)$, $t\in[0,1]$. The process $X$ is…

We introduce a novel measure of dependence that captures the extent to which a random variable $Y$ is determined by a random vector $X$. The measure equals zero precisely when $Y$ and $X$ are independent, and it attains one exactly when $Y$…

We introduce a novel class of bivariate common-shock discrete phase-type (CDPH) distributions to describe dependencies in loss modeling, with an emphasis on those induced by common shocks. By constructing two jointly evolving terminating…

Testing for change points in sequences of covariance matrices is an important and equally challenging problem in statistical methodology with applications in various fields. Motivated by the observation that even in cases where the ratio…

There has been a resurgence of interest in incomplete U-statistics that only sum over a subset of kernel evaluations, due to their computational efficiency and asymptotic normality which can be leveraged to quantify the uncertainty of…

This article develops general conditions for weak convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo processes and is shown to imply a weak law of large numbers for bounded Lipschitz continuous functions. This allows an estimation theory for…

In exploratory factor analysis, model parameters are usually estimated by maximum likelihood method. The maximum likelihood estimate is obtained by solving a complicated multivariate algebraic equation. Since the solution to the equation is…

We consider the problem of detecting whether a power-law inhomogeneous random graph contains a geometric community, and we frame this as an hypothesis testing problem. More precisely, we assume that we are given a sample from an unknown…

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating fractional processes based on noisy high-frequency data. Generalizing the idea of pre-averaging to a fractional setting, we exhibit a sequence of consistent estimators for the unknown…

In this article we prove a new central limit theorem (CLT) for coupled particle filters (CPFs). CPFs are used for the sequential estimation of the difference of expectations w.r.t. filters which are in some sense close. Examples include the…