综合经济学
Migration is reshaping demographic landscapes across Europe, raising urgent questions about adapting to rapid population changes. This study examines the canton of Fribourg, Switzerland, which experienced a 30% population increase over the…
Aesthetic qualities command measurable premiums in traditional goods markets. However, it remains unclear whether users are willing to pay for such qualities in AI-generated text. This paper estimates the willingness to pay for aesthetic…
We document the rise of negative earnings between 1980 and 2019: a secular increase in the percent of firms reporting losses, both among public firms and in the broader universe of US corporations, and a secular increase in the persistence…
Can Large Language Models (AI agents) aggregate dispersed private information through trading and reason about the knowledge of others by observing price movements? We conduct a controlled experiment where AI agents trade in a prediction…
Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decomposition that separates exchange-equivalent turnover from…
The race for artificial intelligence (AI) dominance often prioritizes scale over efficiency. Hyper-scaling is the common industry approach: larger models, more data, and as many computational resources as possible. Using more resources is a…
Elites disproportionately influence policymaking, yet little is known about their fairness and efficiency preferences -- key determinants of support for redistributive policies. We investigate these preferences in an incentivized lab…
First-nature geography shapes the location of prosperity. I provide evidence by investigating the effects when it suddenly changes. In 1825 a storm breached the Agger Isthmus. This connected Denmark's west Limfjord Region to the North Sea.…
Automation raises productivity and reduces paid human labor, but it also reallocates income and ownership claims. This paper studies that tradeoff in a static benchmark and in a stationary heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium. Firms…
How should nations price carbon? This paper examines how the treatment of global inequality, captured by regional welfare weights, affects optimal carbon prices. I develop theory to identify the conditions under which accounting for…
This paper investigates the structural transformation of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) tin market induced by the U.S. Dodd-Frank Act. Focusing on the breakdown of the pricing mechanism, we estimate the price elasticity of…
Venture capital outcomes are dominated by a small number of extreme successes, making it difficult to distinguish investor skill from favorable realizations in a highly skewed return distribution. We study this question by comparing…
This paper addresses the structure and dynamics of an open market economy and its relations with the real interest rate. In this respect, the paper is situated within a broad conventional literature. However, it departs from the standard…
This paper develops a formal critique of scalar fiscal aggregation in the IS LM BP/Mundell Fleming framework. It shows that when fiscal policy is composed of heterogeneous instruments current purchases, public investment and transfers to…
This paper evaluates whether the U.S. Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) supported American worker resilience to technological automation. Analyzing over 23 million WIOA participation records (2017-2023), we introduce the…
Heinsohn and Steiger's "Eigentum, Zins und Geld" (1996) proposes the property premium as the foundational determinant of interest, replacing time preference. This paper examines whether the replacement succeeds. It does not. The two…
I introduce a novel approach to structural modelling and estimation of continuous demand systems, utilising consideration sets to analyse differentiated products markets with very large choice sets and purchases over multiple goods,…
This paper develops a method for estimating housing production functions when builders choose capital after observing local conditions that are unobserved by the econometrician. Because observed capital variation reflects both technological…
Which jobs can AI learn to do? We examine this for every occupation in the US economy. Existing indices measure the overlap between AI capabilities and occupational tasks rather than which tasks AI systems can learn to perform, and as a…
Strategic competitions in the real world, from wars to geopolitical rivalries, often involve coalitions competing against rival groups. These contests are not simple interactions between unified entities, but multilayered processes in which…