综合经济学
We explain the long-standing puzzle of na\"ive diversification with a simple, testable condition: equal weighting is minimum-variance optimal when the forecast-error covariance matrix has a uniform eigenstructure. This "Golden Criterion"…
Family-firm scholarship offers competing predictions about whether family control protects or threatens market integrity. We argue that the answer depends on how family involvement is exercised. Drawing on socioemotional wealth and…
We use a controlled experiment to study how beliefs are updated after receiving qualitative information (AI recommendations) from an unknown data-generating process (DGP). Across 60,252 pairs of prior and posterior beliefs, we document…
Over the last 15 years the number of U.S. orbital launches has grown by roughly an order of magnitude. About three-quarters of those launches were on SpaceX's Falcon 9 vehicle, and roughly three-fifths of those Falcon launches deployed…
Economic power in international trade is the capacity of one country to impose loss on another by withdrawing from a trading relationship. This paper measures it. A model of the short run represents each trade restriction as a pattern of…
This paper develops a model of maritime chokepoint closures in which interrupting a shipping passage produces losses that are not measured, or even bounded, by the value of the trade that transits it. They stem from disruptions in the flow…
The coal phase-out's regional economic impact is a key challenge of the energy transition, as employment and fiscal dependence in coal regions face structural adjustment without automatic market solutions. Analyzing European Union NUTS 2…
Ellsberg's famous paradox challenged Savage's subjective expected utility theory (EUT) -- which reduces uncertainty to risk -- by suggesting an aversion toward ambiguity. We provide a revealed preference test of the full set of axioms…
The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) by large enterprises is an important potential source of aggregate productivity improvement and labor market impact. We study AI adoption of S&P 500 firms over the period 2016 to 2025, estimating…
We study how generative AI affects student learning in a randomized experiment. In proctored, in-person sessions, undergraduates learn about an unfamiliar topic and write an analytical essay with or without access to off-the-shelf…
We introduce a novel monthly county-level consumption dataset constructed from spending data on over 350 million credit cards in the Federal Reserve's Y-14M reports, covering over 3,000 U.S. counties since 2014. We first show that the data…
Generative AI is fast becoming the first place people turn for expert advice. The advice it provides can be directional rather than neutral, shaped in part by the choices of its designers and regulators. When clients consult AI before…
The digital age has facilitated the sharing of underutilized assets. This paper focuses on privately owned autonomous vehicles (AVs), a unique class of robots that can move independently and provide transportation services. When not in…
Societal goals need to shift from over-reliance on gross domestic product (GDP) to broader aspects of sustainable and inclusive wellbeing (SIW). However, defining SIW and eventually measuring it with a single number is problematic because…
We develop an agent-based model in which inflation emerges from decentralized price-setting and credit-financed production in an endogenous-money economy. Firms operate under working-capital constraints, form market-based price expectations…
This paper studies the impact of geographic proximity to and utilization of publicly funded advisory services offered to US small businesses on firm take-up and performance. We leverage a novel administrative dataset from the Northern…
Over the last decade a wave of U.S. states began reimbursing doula services through Medicaid, hoping to improve infant health and narrow stark racial gaps in birth outcomes. I evaluate these mandates using the staggered 2021-2024 rollout, a…
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted socio-economic and healthcare systems in the Philippines, significantly affecting barangays. This study analyzes the cascading effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on key aspects of a barangay, namely mobility,…
Evaluating the economic impacts of climate policies is important for designing a response to climate change. One typical approach to assessing mitigation policy options uses integrated climate-economy models to analyze tradeoffs between the…
Existing literature offers persuasive evidence that individuals care about how their consumption compares to that of peers, and proposes a large variety of explanatory models. The present paper proposes a common framework for many of those…