综合经济学
We analyze how four forces restructure the AI industry over 2026-2030: the DRAM/HBM price surge, frontier-capable open-weight models (GLM-5.2), rapid inference-efficiency gains (near-Shannon-limit KV-cache compression, lightweight local…
We estimate the gradient of the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) with respect to liquidity using a new estimator designed for administrative data with negligible measurement error in income. We derive a state-dependent consumption…
U.S. life expectancy stagnated and declined in the 2010s despite continued growth in real per capita income. We use Preston curves to characterize this pattern as a change in the relationship between income and longevity. Using state-level…
Widely held views can go unspoken when speaking out alone invites retaliation. I recast such silence as a problem of safe coalition formation. When safety comes in numbers, there is a largest group that could speak safely. Open organizing…
On a large French ridesharing platform, new minority drivers earn 11.6% less revenue than otherwise similar nonminority drivers; the gap nearly vanishes as they accumulate reviews. Reviews drive the convergence: when a railway strike…
This paper develops a novel estimates of annual private sector agricultural R&D at the level of US states for the period 1976-2014. For each of five different agricultural subsectors, I allocate estimates of national private sector R&D…
Decision-makers usually receive information through narratives that combine diagnostic evidence with nondiagnostic details. In a laboratory experiment, we study how such nondiagnostic clues affect belief updating. Participants repeatedly…
As firms increasingly adopt AI-powered pricing algorithms, a key and urgent policy concern is how to regulate the potential algorithmic collusion. This paper approaches the regulatory question through the lens of information design and…
The rich have emitted the bulk of greenhouse gases. The poor suffer the bulk of the impacts. Climate change is a transfer from poor to rich. Climate policy is a transfer from rich to poor. Why, Schelling asked, do people in the Global North…
Enhancing sustainable development performance requires an assessment of the relative roles of economic sectors in this process. However, comparative empirical evidence regarding the sectoral structure of sustainable development is limited,…
Green growth through circular economy is the dominant institutional response to ecological breakdown. Yet its insufficiency is structural: material flow arithmetic prevents loop closing at scale in a growing economy, thermodynamic…
Modern world models -- Dreamer, transformer world models (IRIS, Genie), and JEPA / next-latent architectures -- learn dynamics from observed trajectories but share a weakness: their transition map is disciplined only where data were seen,…
Traditional theory predicts equivalent effects of matching and rebate subsidies at equal prices, yet experiments favor matching. Refinements narrow this gap but retain compulsory assignment; take-up is voluntary in practice. We test this…
This study examines the impact of the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake on population distribution within Tokyo City. The earthquake triggered massive fires that devastated nearly half of the city, including much of its urban core. To investigate…
Public official-information request records contain process signals. They can support research, workflow review, and human-supervised agent help. Yet they also mix observed correspondence, platform states, inferred events, and legal…
Automation affects public budgets through wages and the tax base, and also through inflows into social insurance. We estimate the effect of industrial robot exposure on Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) applications using…
Housing markets capitalize new information regarding future risks and ownership costs, yet little is known about how markets respond when sequential shocks differ fundamentally in nature. This study examines how Florida's condominium market…
We investigate the relationship between consanguineous (close-kin) marriage and women's acceptance of intimate partner violence (IPV) in Pakistan. We argue that consanguineous marriages reinforce overlapping kinship networks that intensify…
While the operational benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are well-documented, the mechanisms through which firms leverage AI for strategic exploration and radical innovation remain under-theorized. This study addresses the black box…
Average wages in Japan rose until the mid-1990s but stagnated thereafter. This paper studies Japan's long-run wage stagnation by decomposing changes in average log real hourly wages from 1980 to 2024 into four components: demographic change…