综合经济学

The start of a human's life can be characterized by two lotteries: that of your genes (nature) and the family you were born into (nurture). These set in motion a trajectory, from birth onward, in health and human capital. Leveraging three…

Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…

We characterize the family of utility functions satisfying linear fractional relative risk aversion (LFRRA) in terms of the Gauss hypergeometric functions. We apply this family, which nests various utility functions used in different…

This paper characterises optimal incentive schemes for ESG disclosure in a continuous-time principal-agent setting. We model a risk-averse principal (e.g., a platform or standard-setter) contracting with a team of heterogeneous agents whose…

Education is a major source of inequality in income and health. Polygenic indices for educational attainment (EA-PGI) capture both direct and indirect genetic influences on education, but their effects on income and health remain unclear.…

Large monetary expansions do not necessarily generate consumer-price inflation, challenging scalar views of "money supply." Here we propose that monetary function is phase-dependent: newly issued base money can occupy distinct functional…

Generative AI acts as a disruptive technological shock to evaluative organizations. In academic peer review, it enters both sides of the market: authors use AI to polish submissions, and reviewers use it to generate plausible reports…

Firms are deploying more capable AI systems, but organizational controls often have not kept pace. These systems can generate greater productivity gains, but high-value uses require broader authority exposure -- data access, workflow…

We evaluate subsidy mechanisms in the FCC's Rural Health Care program using administrative data covering the full population of participants. The original price-cap mechanism removes cost-containment incentives for health care providers. An…

We digitize and analyze the near-universe of National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP) membership records and link them to newly digitized population and industrial censuses. Four findings emerge. First, as the party expanded, its…

We show that since the mid-1990s, the trade-promoting effects of tariff liberalization have been increasingly offset by deteriorating geopolitical alignment, slowing trade globalization after 2007. To quantify this barrier, we use large…

This paper develops a multilayer network approach for exploring the evolution of scientific disciplines, using the case of economics before and after the 2008 global financial crisis as a large-scale empirical testing ground. The units of…

This paper examines how Canadian firms balance the benefits of technology adoption against the rising risk of cyber security breaches. We merge data from the 2021 Canadian Survey of Digital Technology and Internet Use and the 2021 Canadian…

Benchmark hacking refers to tuning a machine learning model to score highly on certain evaluation criteria without improving true generalization or faithfully solving the intended problem. We study this phenomenon in a generic machine…

Text-based measurement in political research often treats classi6ication disagreement as random noise. We examine this assumption using con6idence-weighted human annotations of 5,000 social media messages by U.S. politicians. We 6ind that…

This paper studies whether behavioral interventions designed to promote resource conservation in one domain generate spillovers in another. Using a natural field experiment involving over 2,000 residents, we identify the direct and…

This paper studies cost pass-through in differentiated-product oligopoly. I derive a general representation of the pass-through matrix that decomposes equilibrium price responses into the roles of demand curvature, substitution, and…

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to a wide range of predictions about its long-term impact on humanity. A central focus is the potential emergence of transformative AI (TAI), eventually capable of outperforming…

This paper examines the impact of racial discrimination in hiring on employment, wages, and wealth disparities between black and white workers. Using a labor search-and-matching model with racially prejudiced and non-prejudiced firms, we…

Realized ecosystem services (ES) are the actual use of ES by societies, which is more directly linked to human well-being than potential ES. However, there is a lack of a general analysis framework to understand how much ES was realized. In…