综合经济学
Geographic constraints have long structured access to high-growth career opportunities, concentrating upward mobility within a limited set of cities and organizations. The expansion of remote work potentially alters this opportunity…
Brazil's working-time debate is no longer only a choice between keeping the 44-hour week and moving directly to 36 hours. Alternatives around 40 hours, a five-day schedule and phased transitions are also on the table. This policy note asks…
We develop and estimate a structural model of bargaining in firm-to-firm trade to study the determinants of tariff pass-through. The model features oligopoly and oligopsony power and yields analytical expressions for bilateral markups and…
Blockchain's economic value lies in enabling financial and economic transactions without relying on trusted, centralized intermediaries. In practice, however, transactions pass through a fragmented chain of intermediaries before being…
The medium of exchange of the traditional economy is mainly the fiat currency of each country or region, and when cross-border transactions occur, they need to be settled according to the exchange rate. In the AI world, however, the medium…
This paper develops the logical extension of the JFR-rg framework introduced in Part I within the same observables-centered and regime-conditional architecture. Six extensions are formalized: the Virtuous Ratchet (E1), the corrected…
This paper explores a mechanism for mitigating sovereign risk in emerging markets without risks mutualization. The mechanism involves pooling diversified portfolios of sovereign bonds and issuing them in tranches, with the senior tranche…
Using data on shootings in U.S.\ K--12 schools from 1981 to 2022, we estimate the effect of temperature on school shootings and assess climate-change impacts. We find that days with maximum temperatures above 90$^{\circ}$F increase school…
Trust mechanisms diverge between centralized and decentralized exchanges, representing distinct sociotechnical governance paradigms. However, quantifying trust dynamics and their redistribution between these architectures remains…
Despite many decades of research, economically grounded models that analyse energy consumption and energy-efficiency adoption within a unified framework remain underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by proposing a model of…
Prediction-market price moves are widely treated as informationally equivalent: a price jump is read the same way regardless of whether it reflects durable Bayesian updating, transient liquidity pressure, strategic position adjustment, or…
This paper develops a geometric diagnostic framework for classical inequality decomposability. Representing the simplest nontrivial setting of three-person income distributions as points on the two-dimensional income-share simplex, we…
Digital platforms increasingly face a common challenge in the age of artificial intelligence (AI): how to elicit richer and more useful user-generated content (UGC) without fully automating content production. We study this question in the…
We address the joint detection-and-attribution problem in cross-border financial contagion through a two-stage framework. The first stage applies wavelet-quantile transfer entropy across time-scales and lower, median, and upper-tail…
We identify a causal effect of top inventor inflows on the patent productivity of local inventors by combining the idea-generating process described by Marshall (1890) with the Bartik (1991) instruments involving the state taxes and…
The original SCR theory proposed that inflation has two distinct expressions: circulation inflation, measured by rising transaction prices, and reservation inflation, measured by the rising real weight of monetary symbols, debt contracts,…
This study examines who adopts generative AI and whether early adoption has begun to reshape the task content of jobs across 35 European countries. Adoption ranges from under 3% to 25%. Occupational exposure strongly predicts uptake, but AI…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing exponentially and is likely to have profound impacts on human wellbeing, social equity, and environmental sustainability. Here we argue that the "alignment problem" in AI research is also an…
Political messages increasingly bundle economic policy arguments with moral social policy stances. Using survey experiments with roughly 6,500 U.S. adults, I show that such bundling sharply weakens economic persuasion among respondents who…
Between 1949 and 1980, every U.S. state mandated public schools to provide educational services for disabled students. This is one of the largest education reforms in U.S. history, but little is known about its impacts. Given scarce data in…