综合经济学

Regulators currently govern the AI data economy based on intuition rather than evidence, struggling to choose between inconsistent regimes of informed consent, immunity, and liability. To fill this policy vacuum, this paper develops a novel…

Gravity equations are often used to evaluate the effects of trade policies, such as regional trade agreements. We argue that their suitability for this purpose critically depends on their ability to produce unbiased out-of-sample…

Building on the task-based approach to labour markets, we develop the Generative AI Susceptibility Index (GAISI), a job-level measure of UK exposure to large language models (LLMs). Drawing on Eloundou et al. (2024), we use LLMs as…

This paper investigates the origins of Islamist insurgencies as a form of cultural revival in West Africa. Exploiting variation in access to ancient water sources, which have largely disappeared, as an instrument, we show that the decline…

Artificial intelligence algorithms are increasingly used by firms to set prices. Previous research shows that they can exhibit collusive behaviour, but how quickly they can do so has so far remained an open question. I show that a modern…

We propose a new approach to estimate government worker skills, a setting where output is hard to observe and wages may be uninformative about skills. The approach uses wages in comparable jobs in the private sector and machine learning…

We develop an incomplete-contracting model with accounting-based covenants to study how covenant accounting adjustments are made and what properties they exhibit. Standard accounting rules (e.g., GAAP) can generate false-alarm errors or…

Satellite data are increasingly used to measure economic activity, yet port-level trade remains largely unmeasured from space. This paper combines synthetic aperture radar imagery, nighttime lights, and port characteristics to measure…

This paper examines the extent to which individual time preferences are associated with the willingness to accept different tax burdens. The first is an intertemporal redistribution in which a current consumption tax increase is exchanged…

We use quadratic vector autoregressions, motivated by pruned second-order perturbation solutions to DSGE models, as a laboratory to evaluate how well popular local projection (LP) specifications recover true impulse responses in nonlinear…

For the 2024/25 season, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) introduced an incomplete round-robin format in the Champions League and Europa League, replacing the traditional group stage with a single league table of all 36…

Do social networks and peer influence shape major life decisions in highly polarized settings? We explore this question by examining how peers influenced the allegiances of West Point cadets during the American Civil War. Leveraging…

AggregateEU is a new centralised mechanism that provides a no-commitment platform to trade natural gas in the European Union. Throughout the consultation process, AggregateEU has been mocked as `Tinder of the European gas markets' as it…

Antitrust authorities frequently rely on structural divestitures to address competitive concerns raised by mergers. Using census-level establishment data and proprietary transaction records from the U.S. grocery sector, we provide…

We leverage a quasi natural experiment from India on introduction of free bus schemes for women across five states to study it's impact on women's workforce participation. We use two rounds of the representative Time Use Survey and a triple…

Electricity markets are changing, driven by large-scale renewable integration and rising demand from electrification and digitalisation. This raises fundamental questions about how electricity prices form as the relationships among key…

In centralized assignment problems, agents may have preferences over joint rather than individual assignments, such as couples in residency matching or siblings in school choice and daycare. Standard preference estimation methods typically…

Signaling is wasteful. But how wasteful? We study the fraction of surplus dissipated in a separating equilibrium. For isoelastic environments, this waste ratio has a simple formula: $\beta/(\beta+\sigma)$, where $\beta$ is the benefit…

A robust thermodynamic relation between inflation corrected monetary valuation and energy emerges from existing work. This is based on the energy used, the aggregate efficiency of all production processes ($\Lambda(t)$) in terms of Joules…

Post-growth has emerged as an umbrella term for various sustainability visions that advocate the pursuit of environmental sustainability, social equity, and human wellbeing, while questioning the continued pursuit of economic growth.…