Covid-19防控中的挑战：短倍增时间与干预措施生效的长延迟
种群与进化
2020-04-02 v1
摘要
对COVID-19传播速率的早期评估存在显著不确定性，这在数据有限和病例确认困难的情况下是预期的，但现在可作出更可靠的推断。此处，我们根据欧洲数据估计，COVID-19病例最初预计每三天翻倍，直到社交距离干预减缓此增长，且此类措施的影响通常仅在其实施九天后——即三个倍增时间——才显现。我们认为，相较于基本再生数的精确估计，此类时间模式对于启动干预更为关键。该观察对目前处于本地流行病早期阶段的低收入和中等收入国家具有特别意义。
引用
@article{arxiv.2004.00117,
title = {Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions},
author = {Lorenzo Pellis and Francesca Scarabel and Helena B. Stage and Christopher E. Overton and Lauren H. K. Chappell and Katrina A. Lythgoe and Elizabeth Fearon and Emma Bennett and Jacob Curran-Sebastian and Rajenki Das and Martyn Fyles and Hugo Lewkowicz and Xiaoxi Pang and Bindu Vekaria and Luke Webb and Thomas House and Ian Hall},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.00117},
year = {2020}
}
备注
Main text: 13 pages (1-13), 3 figures, 1 table; Supplementary Information: 9 pages (14-22), 4 figures, 1 table