相关论文: Probability Models and Ultralogics

Complex dynamical systems driven by the unravelling of information can be modelled effectively by treating the underlying flow of information as the model input. Complicated dynamical behaviour of the system is then derived as an output.…

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) trained for next-word prediction have demonstrated remarkable proficiency at producing coherent text. But are they equally adept at forming coherent probability judgments? We use probabilistic…

A prediction interval covers a future observation from a random process in repeated sampling, and is typically constructed by identifying a pivotal quantity that is also an ancillary statistic. Analogously, a tolerance interval covers a…

By using straightforward frequency arguments we classify transformations of probabilities which can be generated by transition from one preparation procedure (context) to another. There are three classes of transformations corresponding to…

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We…

As of the date of this version, this monograph (parts I and II) contains all of the known technical results relative to the Robinson-styled nonstandard modeling of natural languages and certain associated linguistic processes such as…

In finite probability theory, events are subsets of the outcome set. Subsets can be represented by 1-dimensional column vectors. By extending the representation of events to two dimensional matrices, we can introduce "superposition events."…

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

This paper investigates the use of probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) to model aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent variability in the input-output relationships of a system, often characterized by unequal variance or…

Probabilistic topic models are generative models that describe the content of documents by discovering the latent topics underlying them. However, the structure of the textual input, and for instance the grouping of words in coherent text…

Nonlinear expectation, including sublinear expectation as its special case, is a new and original framework of probability theory and has potential applications in some scientific fields, especially in finance risk measure and management.…

The infinite-dimensional information operator for the nuisance parameter plays a key role in semiparametric inference, as it is closely related to the regular estimability of the target parameter. Calculation of information operators has…

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

We explore the interplay between random and deterministic phenomena using a representation of uncertainty based on the measure-theoretic concept of outer measure. The meaning of the analogues of different probabilistic concepts is…

We present a formulation of the problem of probabilistic model checking as one of query evaluation over probabilistic logic programs. To the best of our knowledge, our formulation is the first of its kind, and it covers a rich class of…

The article focuses on determining the predictive uncertainty of a model on the example of atrial fibrillation detection problem by a single-lead ECG signal. To this end, the model predicts parameters of the beta distribution over class…

Formalisms for specifying statistical models, such as probabilistic-programming languages, typically consist of two components: a specification of a stochastic process (the prior), and a specification of observations that restrict the…

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…