相关论文: Probability Models and Ultralogics

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum…

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…

Motivated by recently emerging problems in machine learning and statistics, we propose data models which relax the familiar i.i.d. assumption. In essence, we seek to understand what it means for data to come from a set of probability…

We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their…

Although neural networks are powerful function approximators, the underlying modelling assumptions ultimately define the likelihood and thus the hypothesis class they are parameterizing. In classification, these assumptions are minimal as…

We study the problem of data integration from sources that contain probabilistic uncertain information. Data is modeled by possible-worlds with probability distribution, compactly represented in the probabilistic relation model. Integration…

This text presents an unified approach of probability and statistics in the pursuit of understanding and computation of randomness in engineering or physical or social system with prediction with generalizability. Starting from elementary…

This paper introduces a unified theoretical perspective that views deep generative models as probability transformation functions. Despite the apparent differences in architecture and training methodologies among various types of generative…

The use of surrogate models instead of computationally expensive simulation codes is very convenient in engineering. Roughly speaking, there are two kinds of surrogate models: the deterministic and the probabilistic ones. These last are…

When neural networks are employed for high-stakes decision-making, it is desirable that they provide explanations for their prediction in order for us to understand the features that have contributed to the decision. At the same time, it is…

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models…

Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning…

Descriptive statistics for parametric models are currently highly sensative to departures, gross errors, and/or random errors. Here, leveraging the structures of parametric distributions and their central moment kernel distributions, a…

Probabilistic models often use neural networks to control their predictive uncertainty. However, when making out-of-distribution (OOD)} predictions, the often-uncontrollable extrapolation properties of neural networks yield poor uncertainty…

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Given a current news event, we tackle the problem of generating plausible predictions of future events it might cause. We present a new methodology for modeling and predicting such future news events using machine learning and data mining…

Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…

Temporal logics over finite traces have recently seen wide application in a number of areas, from business process modelling, monitoring, and mining to planning and decision making. However, real-life dynamic systems contain a degree of…

Learning how to predict future events from patterns of past events is difficult when the set of possible event types is large. Training an unrestricted neural model might overfit to spurious patterns. To exploit domain-specific knowledge of…