相关论文: Probability Models and Ultralogics

We introduce a general framework for undirected graphical models. It generalizes Gaussian graphical models to a wide range of continuous, discrete, and combinations of different types of data. The models in the framework, called exponential…

With the rise of increasingly powerful and user-facing NLP systems, there is growing interest in assessing whether they have a good representation of uncertainty by evaluating the quality of their predictive distribution over outcomes. We…

We develop a theory of estimation when in addition to a sample of $n$ observed outcomes the underlying probabilities of the observed outcomes are known, as is typically the case in the context of numerical simulation modeling, e.g. in…

In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate…

We discuss several aspects of creation of adequate mathematical models in other sciences. In particular, many difficulties stem from great complexity of the source systems and the presence of a variety of uncertain factors. We illustrate…

By linking conceptual theories with observed data, generative models can support reasoning in complex situations. They have come to play a central role both within and beyond statistics, providing the basis for power analysis in molecular…

The inability to correctly resolve rumours circulating online can have harmful real-world consequences. We present a method for incorporating model and data uncertainty estimates into natural language processing models for automatic rumour…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the…

Here we introduce probabilistic weighted and unweighted multilayer networks as derived from information theoretical correlation measures on large multidimensional datasets. We present the fundamentals of the formal application of…

A variety of works in the literature strive to uncover the factors associated with survival behaviour. However, the computational tools to provide such information are global models designed to predict if or when a (survival) event will…

Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference…

We show on theoretical grounds that, even in the presence of noise, probabilistic measurement strategies (which have a certain probability of failure or abstention) can provide, upon a heralded successful outcome, estimates with a precision…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

Symbolic event recognition systems have been successfully applied to a variety of application domains, extracting useful information in the form of events, allowing experts or other systems to monitor and respond when significant events are…

The literature for count modeling provides useful tools to conduct causal inference when outcomes take non-negative integer values. Applied to the potential outcomes framework, we link the Bayesian causal inference literature to statistical…

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…

Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert output from numerical weather forecasting systems (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts for binary events. A logistic model obtains by putting the logarithmic odds ratio…

Logistic regression is an important statistical tool for assessing the probability of an outcome based upon some predictive variables. Standard methods can only deal with precisely known data, however many datasets have uncertainties which…

Evaluating a neural network on an input that differs markedly from the training data might cause erratic and flawed predictions. We study a method that judges the unusualness of an input by evaluating its informative content compared to the…