相关论文: Probability Models and Ultralogics

With the increasing impact of algorithmic decision-making on human lives, the interpretability of models has become a critical issue in machine learning. Counterfactual explanation is an important method in the field of interpretable…

Ontological models are attempts to quantitatively describe the results of a probabilistic theory, such as Quantum Mechanics, in a framework exhibiting an explicit realism-based underpinning. Unlike either the well known quasi-probability…

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on…

Bayesian modeling provides a principled approach to quantifying uncertainty in model parameters and model structure and has seen a surge of applications in recent years. Within the context of a Bayesian workflow, we are concerned with model…

A new general procedure for a priori selection of more predictable events from a time series of observed variable is proposed. The procedure is applicable to time series which contains different types of events that feature significantly…

When a dataset contains forecasts on unscheduled events, such as natural catastrophes, outcomes may be censored or ``hidden'' since some events have not yet occurred. This article finds that this can lead to a selection bias which affects…

In this paper, we propose a new logic for expressing and reasoning about probabilistic hyperproperties. Hyperproperties characterize the relation between different independent executions of a system. Probabilistic hyperproperties express…

We introduce a class of neural networks derived from probabilistic models in the form of Bayesian networks. By imposing additional assumptions about the nature of the probabilistic models represented in the networks, we derive neural…

In this article, it is described how to use statistical data analysis to obtain models directly from data. The focus is put on finding nonlinearities within a generalized additive model. These models are found by the means of backfitting…

Deterministic mathematical models, such as those specified via differential equations, are a powerful tool to communicate scientific insight. However, such models are necessarily simplified descriptions of the real world. Generalised…

The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…

Recursive graphical models usually underlie the statistical modelling concerning probabilistic expert systems based on Bayesian networks. This paper defines a version of these models, denoted as recursive exponential models, which have…

A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

Bayesian hierarchical models are well-suited to analyzing the often noisy data from electroencephalography experiments in cognitive neuroscience: these models provide an intuitive framework to account for structures and correlations in the…

The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This work investigates whether this distribution moreover correlates with a model's epistemic uncertainty,…

Living organisms survive and multiply even though they have uncertain and incomplete information about their environment and imperfect models to predict the consequences of their actions. Bayesian models have been proposed to face this…

In this paper (propositional) probability logic ($PL$) is investigated from model theoretic point of view. First of all, the ultraproduct construction is adapted for $\sigma$-additive probability models, and subsequently when this class of…

Causal Models are like Dependency Graphs and Belief Nets in that they provide a structure and a set of assumptions from which a joint distribution can, in principle, be computed. Unlike Dependency Graphs, Causal Models are models of…

We present a mechanism for constructing graphical models, specifically Bayesian networks, from a knowledge base of general probabilistic information. The unique feature of our approach is that it uses a powerful first-order probabilistic…

This paper develops a class of potential outcomes models characterized by three main features: (i) Unobserved heterogeneity can be represented by a vector of potential outcomes and a type describing the manner in which an instrument…