相关论文: Probability Models and Ultralogics

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when…

A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge about models has on the predictions we make from them. This question naturally lends itself to a probabilistic formulation, by…

In this paper we present a use of nonstandard methods in the theory of ultrafilters and in related applications to combinatorics of numbers.

We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques…

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

We construct flexible likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian process models that leverage neural networks as components. We make use of sparse variational inference methods to enable scalable approximate inference for the resulting class of…

Maximum composite likelihood estimation is a useful alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when data arise from data generating processes (DGPs) that do not admit tractable joint specification. We demonstrate that generic composite…

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

Linear approximations to the decision boundary of a complex model have become one of the most popular tools for interpreting predictions. In this paper, we study such linear explanations produced either post-hoc by a few recent methods or…

Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

Nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are powerful tools for modeling real-world dynamical systems. However, propagating initial state uncertainty through nonlinear dynamics, especially when the ODE is unknown and learned from…

The handling of probabilities in the form of uncertainty or partial information is an essential task for LLMs in many settings and applications. A common approach to evaluate an LLM's probabilistic reasoning capabilities is to assess its…

Probability models have been proposed in the literature to account for "intelligent" behavior in many contexts. In this paper, probability propagation is applied to model agent's motion in potentially complex scenarios that include goals…

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

In this work we present a model for computation of random processes in digital computers which solves the problem of periodic sequences and hidden errors produced by correlations. We show that systems with non-invertible non-linearities can…

Probability-like parameters appearing in some statistical models, and their prior distributions, are reinterpreted through the notion of `circumstance', a term which stands for any piece of knowledge that is useful in assigning a…

Models allowing for random heterogeneity, such as mixed logit and latent class, are generally observed to obtain superior model fit and yield detailed insights into unobserved preference heterogeneity. Using theoretical arguments and two…

An approach to fault isolation that exploits vastly incomplete models is presented. It relies on separate descriptions of each component behavior, together with the links between them, which enables focusing of the reasoning to the relevant…

We propose and study properties of maximum likelihood estimators in the class of conditional transformation models. Based on a suitable explicit parameterisation of the unconditional or conditional transformation function, we establish a…