相关论文: Comparing classical and Bayesian methods for predi…

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…

In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…

One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…

Mediterranean cyclones are extreme meteorological events of which much less is known compared to their tropical, oceanic counterparts. The raising interest in such phenomena is due to their impact on a region increasingly more affected by…

We have developed a sophisticated statistical model for predicting the hitting performance of Major League baseball players. The Bayesian paradigm provides a principled method for balancing past performance with crucial covariates, such as…

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…

Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…

Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…

A stochastic approach is implemented to address the problem of a marine structure exposed to water wave impacts. The focus is on (i) the average frequency of wave impacts, and (ii) the related probability distribution of impact kinematic…

In the present paper we demonstrate the results of a statistical analysis of some characteristics of precipitation events and propose a kind of a theoretical explanation of the proposed models in terms of mixed Poisson and mixed exponential…

Accurate analysis and forecasting of tidal level are very important tasks for human activities in oceanic and coastal areas. They can be crucial in catastrophic situations like occurrences of Tsunamis in order to provide a rapid alerting to…

The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…

Reproductive phenology, growth and mortality rates are key ecological parameters that determine population dynamics and are therefore of vital importance to stock assessment models for fisheries management. In many fish species, the…

Classical and quantum scattering of a non-Gaussian wave packet by a rectangular barrier is studied in terms of arrival times to a given detector location. A classical wave equation, proposed by N. Rosen [{\it{Am. J. Phys.}} {\bf 32} (1964)…

At present, most surface-quality prediction methods can only perform single-task prediction which results in under-utilised datasets, repetitive work and increased experimental costs. To counter this, the authors propose a Bayesian…

Statistical interpolation of chemical concentrations at new locations is an important step in assessing a worker's exposure level. When measurements are available from coastlines, as is the case in coastal clean-up operations in oil spills,…

Bayesian methods are becoming more widely used in asteroseismic analysis. In particular, they are being used to determine oscillation frequencies, which are also commonly found by Fourier analysis. It is important to establish whether the…

There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…