相关论文: Management Fads, Pedagogies and Soft Technologies

With the advent of high-performance computing, Bayesian methods are increasingly popular tools for the quantification of uncertainty throughout science and industry. Since these methods impact the making of sometimes critical decisions in…

Consider a decision maker who is responsible to collect observations so as to enhance his information in a speedy manner about an underlying phenomena of interest. The policies under which the decision maker selects sensing actions can be…

To make decisions organisms often accumulate information across multiple timescales. However, most experimental and modeling studies of decision-making focus on sequences of independent trials. On the other hand, natural environments are…

We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model.…

We are living in an uncertain and dynamically changing world, where optimal decision-making under uncertainty is directly linked to the survival of species. However, evolutionary selection pressures that shape value-based decision-making…

To identify the main mechanisms underlying complex opinion formation processes in social systems, researchers have long been exploring simple mechanistic mathematical models. Most existing opinion dynamics models are built on a common…

Discrimination in selection problems such as hiring or college admission is often explained by implicit bias from the decision maker against disadvantaged demographic groups. In this paper, we consider a model where the decision maker…

We develop inference for a two-sided matching model where the characteristics of agents on one side of the market are endogenous due to pre-matching investments. The model can be used to measure the impact of frictions in labour markets…

Convenient access to observational data enables us to learn causal effects without randomized experiments. This research direction draws increasing attention in research areas such as economics, healthcare, and education. For example, we…

Problem definition: Corporate brands, grassroots activists, and ordinary citizens all routinely employ Word-of-mouth (WoM) diffusion to promote products and instigate social change. Our work models the formation and spread of negative…

Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively…

Foundation models, and in particular large language models, can generate highly informative responses, prompting growing interest in using these ''synthetic'' outputs as data in empirical research and decision-making. This paper introduces…

A new simple model of diffusion of innovations in a social network with upgrading costs is introduced. Agents are characterized by a single real variable, their technological level. According to local information agents decide whether to…

Randomized controlled experiments assess new policy impacts on performance metrics to inform launch decisions. Traditional approaches evaluate metrics independently despite correlations, and mixed results (e.g., positive revenue impact,…

The process of technological change can be regarded as a non-deterministic system governed by factors of a cumulative nature that generate cyclical phenomena. In this context, the process of growth and decline of technology can be…

Deductive verification is an effective method to ensure that a given system exposes the intended behavior. In spite of its proven usefulness and feasibility in selected projects, deductive verification is still not a mainstream technique.…

This paper presents a model of costly information acquisition where decision-makers can choose whether to elaborate information superficially or precisely. The former action is costless, while the latter entails a processing cost. Within…

Opinion dynamics, the evolution of individuals through social interactions, is an important area of research with applications ranging from politics to marketing. Due to its interdisciplinary relevance, studies of opinion dynamics remain…

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework that models distributed inference for a group of agents interacting over a social network. In this framework, each agent iteratively forms and communicates beliefs about an unknown…

We derive novel analytic tools for the discrete Bass model, which models the diffusion of new products on networks. We prove that the probability that any two nodes adopt by time t, is greater than or equal to the product of the…