相关论文: Management Fads, Pedagogies and Soft Technologies
Decision tree induction systems are being used for knowledge acquisition in noisy domains. This paper develops a subjective Bayesian interpretation of the task tackled by these systems and the heuristic methods they use. It is argued that…
Adoption processes in socio-technological systems have been widely studied both empirically and theoretically. The way in which social norms, behaviors, and even items such as books, music, or other commercial or technological product…
Decision makers sometimes cannot observe the consequences of their actions ex-post. This paper axiomatically characterizes a decision model in which the decision maker cares about verifying that a good consequence has been achieved.…
The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian…
The spread of new products in a networked population is often modeled as an epidemic. However, in the case of `complex' contagion, these models {do not capture nuanced, dynamic social reinforcement effects in adoption behavior}. In this…
Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…
Off-Policy Estimation (OPE) methods allow us to learn and evaluate decision-making policies from logged data. This makes them an attractive choice for the offline evaluation of recommender systems, and several recent works have reported…
We present a concise derivation for several influential score-based diffusion models that relies on only a few textbook results. Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful tools for generating realistic, synthetic signals --…
Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for…
Evidence-based decision-making entails collecting (costly) observations about an underlying phenomenon of interest, and subsequently committing to an (informed) decision on the basis of accumulated evidence. In this setting, active sensing…
Faced with uncertainty in decision making, individuals often turn to their social networks to inform their decisions. In consequence, these networks become central to how new products and behaviors spread. A key structural feature of…
We consider a model of socially interacting individuals that make a binary choice in a context of positive additive endogenous externalities. It encompasses as particular cases several models from the sociology and economics literature. We…
In this study, the authors develop a structural model that combines a macro diffusion model with a micro choice model to control for the effect of social influence on the mobile app choices of customers over app stores. Social influence…
Purpose - To qualify the significance of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory with regard to Virtual Learning Environments. To apply an existing Diffusion of Innovations instrument on a case organisation, the Royal University of Bhutan…
The spread of opinions, memes, diseases, and "alternative facts" in a population depends both on the details of the spreading process and on the structure of the social and communication networks on which they spread. In this paper, we…
Diffusion models have shown their effectiveness in generation tasks by well-approximating the underlying probability distribution. However, diffusion models are known to suffer from an amplified inherent bias from the training data in terms…
Social learning, copying other's behavior without actual experience, offers a cost-effective means of knowledge acquisition. However, it raises the fundamental question of which individuals have reliable information: successful individuals…
A buyer and a seller bargain over the price of an object. Both players can build reputations for being obstinate by offering the same price over time. Before players bargain, the seller decides whether to adopt a new technology that can…
Much research has been done on studying the diffusion of ideas or technologies on social networks including the \textit{Influence Maximization} problem and many of its variations. Here, we investigate a type of inverse problem. Given a…
This work develops a measurement-driven and model-based formal verification approach, applicable to systems with partly unknown dynamics. We provide a principled method, grounded on reachability analysis and on Bayesian inference, to…