相关论文: Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most…

We investigate the dynamics of correlations present between pairs of industry indices of US stocks traded in US markets by studying correlation based networks and spectral properties of the correlation matrix. The study is performed by…

Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a…

Based on the Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) methodology, with the universal preferred scaling factor $\lambda \approx 2$, the negative bubble on the oil market in 2014-2016 has been detected. Over the same period a positive bubble on the so…

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

To test a hypothesized faster-than-global sea-level acceleration along the mid-Atlantic United States, I construct a Gaussian process model that decomposes tide gauge data into short-term variability and longer-term trends, and into…

A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has so far unfolded diversely across the fifty United States of America, reflected both in different time progressions of infection "waves" and in magnitudes of local infection rates. Despite a marked diversity of…

Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that…

This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present windows of…

This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the…

This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of…

Empirical business cycle studies using cross-country data usually cannot achieve causal relationships while within-country studies mostly focus on the bust period. We provide the first causal investigation into the boom period of the…

In this article we present an alternative model for the distribution of household incomes in the United States. We provide arguments from two differing perspectives which both yield the proposed income distribution curve, and then fit this…

In this study, we investigate asset price bubbles in a discrete-time, discrete-state market under model uncertainty and short sales prohibitions. Building on a new fundamental theorem of asset pricing and a superhedging duality in this…

Housing instability is a persistent challenge faced by households in cities across the United States. In worst-case scenarios, households are displaced from their residences and forced to start anew. In an effort to mitigate the harms of…

Twenty-two significant bubbles followed by large crashes or by severe corrections in the Argentinian, Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian, Venezuelan, Hong-Kong, Indonesian, Korean, Malaysian, Philippine and Thai stock markets indices are…

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors'…

The study focuses on improving the ex ante prediction accuracy assessment in the case of forecasting various house price dispersion measures in the USA. It addresses a critical gap in real estate market forecasting by proposing a novel…

This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed…