相关论文: Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

This article proposes a spatial dynamic structural equation model for the analysis of housing prices at the State level in the USA. The study contributes to the existing literature by extending the use of dynamic factor models to the…

Studies of wealth inequality often assume that an observed wealth distribution reflects a system in equilibrium. This constraint is rarely tested empirically. We introduce a simple model that allows equilibrium but does not assume it. To…

We show that a simple model of a spatially resolved evolving economic system, which has a steady state under simultaneous updating, shows stable oscillations in price when updated asynchronously. The oscillations arise from a gradual…

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…

The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global…

A compartmental epidemic model is proposed to predict the Covid-19 virus spread. It considers: both detected and undetected infected populations, medical quarantine and social sequestration, release from sequestration, plus possible…

The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same…

Since supplanting Canada in 2014, Chinese investors have been the lead foreign buyers of U.S. real estate, concentrating their purchases in urban areas with higher Chinese populations like California. The reasons for investment include…

A statistical model for predicting individual house prices and constructing a house price index is proposed utilizing information regarding sale price, time of sale and location (ZIP code). This model is composed of a fixed time effect and…

We give a summary of the current state of Local Bubble research, resulting from the discussions of a dedicated panel meeting. After more than 25 years of intense observational and theoretical work, we are still far from a coherent picture,…

The dynamics of prices in financial markets has been studied intensively both experimentally (data analysis) and theoretically (models). Nevertheless, a complete stochastic characterization of volatility is still lacking. What it is well…

Urban house prices are strongly associated with local socioeconomic factors. In literature, house price modeling is based on socioeconomic variables from traditional census, which is not real-time, dynamic and comprehensive. Inspired by the…

We show that power-law analyses of financial commentaries from newspaper web-sites can be used to identify stock market bubbles, supplementing traditional volatility analyses. Using a four-year corpus of 17,713 online, finance-related…

Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology…

In this paper, I revisit Phillips, Wu and Yu's seminal 2011 paper on testing for the dot-com bubble. I apply recent advancements of their methods to individual Nasdaq stocks and use a novel specification for fundamentals. To address a…

In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price…

Home sale prices are formed given the transaction actors economic interests, which include government, real estate dealers, and the general public who buy or sell properties. Generating an accurate property price prediction model is a major…

The pricing of housing properties is determined by a variety of factors. However, post-pandemic markets have experienced volatility in the Chicago suburb area, which have affected house prices greatly. In this study, analysis was done on…

Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the Bubble Necessity…

In the past few years, "metaverse" and "non-fungible tokens (NFT)" have become buzzwords, and the prices of related assets have exhibited large fluctuations. Are those characteristic of a speculative bubble? In this paper, we attempt to…