相关论文: Conditional Probability as a Measure of Volatility…

We propose a novel method to quantify the clustering behavior in a complex time series and apply it to a high-frequency data of the financial markets. We find that regardless of used data sets, all data exhibits the volatility clustering…

The dynamics of prices in financial markets has been studied intensively both experimentally (data analysis) and theoretically (models). Nevertheless, a complete stochastic characterization of volatility is still lacking. What it is well…

This note outlines a method for clustering time series based on a statistical model in which volatility shifts at unobserved change-points. The model accommodates some classical stylized features of returns and its relation to GARCH is…

Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…

In this paper we use Clustering Method to understand whether stock market volatility can be predicted at all, and if so, when it can be predicted. The exercise has been performed for the Indian stock market on daily data for two years. For…

We develop a new method to find the number of volatility regimes in a nonstationary financial time series by applying unsupervised learning to its volatility structure. We use change point detection to partition a time series into locally…

The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…

Agents' heterogeneity is recognized as a driver mechanism for the persistence of financial volatility. We focus on the multiplicity of investment strategies' horizons, we embed this concept in a continuous time stochastic volatility…

Contagion arising from clustering of multiple time series like those in the stock market indicators can further complicate the nature of volatility, rendering a parametric test (relying on asymptotic distribution) to suffer from issues on…

In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…

We present in this paper an empirical framework motivated by the practitioner point of view on stability. The goal is to both assess clustering validity and yield market insights by providing through the data perturbations we propose a…

The multivariate conditional probability distribution models the effects of a set of variables onto the statistical properties of another set of variables. In the study of systemic risk in a financial system, the multivariate conditional…

A microscopic model of financial markets is considered, consisting of many interacting agents (spins) with global coupling and discrete-time thermal bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. The interactions between agents change…

This paper builds the clustering model of measures of market microstructure features which are popular in predicting stock returns. In a 10-second time-frequency, we study the clustering structure of different measures to find out the best…

As a counterpart to the (static) risk measures of generalized quantiles and motivated by Bellini et al. (2018), we propose a new kind of conditional risk measure called conditional generalized quantiles. We first show their well-definedness…

The data mining technique of time series clustering is well established in many fields. However, as an unsupervised learning method, it requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data involved. The aim of…

The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability…

In several environmental applications data are functions of time, essentially con- tinuous, observed and recorded discretely, and spatially correlated. Most of the methods for analyzing such data are extensions of spatial statistical tools…

The use of factor stochastic volatility models requires choosing the number of latent factors used to describe the dynamics of the financial returns process; however, empirical evidence suggests that the number and makeup of pertinent…

Maximum likelihood estimation applied to high-frequency data allows us to quantify intermittency in the fluctu- ations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency…