相关论文: Constructing Ensembles of Pseudo-Experiments

Different ways of extracting parameters of interest from combined data sets of separate experiments are investigated accounting for the systematic errors. It is shown, that the frequentist approach may yield larger $\chi^2$ values when…

Consider testing multiple hypotheses in the setting where the p-values of all hypotheses are unknown and thus have to be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. One class of algorithms published in the literature for this scenario…

In covariate-adaptive or response-adaptive randomization, the treatment assignment and outcome can be correlated. Under this situation, re-randomization tests are a straightforward and attractive method to provide valid statistical…

Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…

Random-effects meta-analyses have been widely applied in evidence synthesis for various types of medical studies. However, standard inference methods (e.g. restricted maximum likelihood estimation) usually underestimate statistical errors…

Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…

The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random,…

Given an arbitrary long but finite sequence of observations from a finite set, we construct a simple process that approximates the sequence, in the sense that with high probability the empirical frequency, as well as the empirical one-step…

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

In this paper, we propose a general method for testing composite hypotheses. Our idea is to use confidence limits to define stopping and decision rules. The requirements of operating characteristic function can be satisfied by adjusting the…

A typical experiment in high energy physics is considered. The result of the experiment is assumed to be a histogram consisting of bins or channels with numbers of corresponding registered events. The expected background and expected signal…

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

We derive analytic formulas to reconstruct particle-averaged quantities from experimental results that suffer from the efficiency loss of particle measurements. These formulas are derived under the assumption that the probabilities of…

We introduce a class of Monte Carlo estimators that aim to overcome the rapid growth of variance with dimension often observed for standard estimators by exploiting the target's independence structure. We identify the most basic…

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…

Multilevel Monte Carlo can efficiently compute statistical estimates of discretized random variables, for a given error tolerance. Traditionally, only a certain statistic is computed from a particular implementation of multilevel Monte…

We present an algorithm for the analytic continuation of imaginary-time quantum Monte Carlo data which is strictly based on principles of Bayesian statistical inference. Within this framework we are able to obtain an explicit expression for…

Counterfactual explanations indicate the smallest change in input that can translate to a different outcome for a machine learning model. Counterfactuals have generated immense interest in high-stakes applications such as finance,…

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…