相关论文: Constructing Ensembles of Pseudo-Experiments

Frequentist (classical) and the Bayesian approaches to the construction of confidence limits are compared. Various examples which illustrate specific problems are presented. The Likelihood Principle and the Stopping Rule Paradox are…

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Present quantum Monte Carlo codes use statistical techniques adapted to find the amplitude of a quantum system or the associated eigenvalues. Thus, they do not use a true physical random source. It is demonstrated that, in fact, quantum…

Evidently, physical experiments are practically reproducible even though the fully identical preparation of initial state wave functions is often far beyond experimental possibilities. It is thus natural to explore if and in which sense…

We propose a frequentist testing procedure that maintains a defined coverage and is optimal in the sense that it gives maximal power to detect deviations from a null hypothesis when the alternative to the null hypothesis is sampled from a…

Frequentist inference typically is described in terms of hypothetical repeated sampling but there are advantages to an interpretation that uses a single random sample. Contemporary examples are given that indicate probabilities for random…

We consider systems of stochastic differential equations with multiple scales and small noise and assume that the coefficients of the equations are ergodic and stationary random fields. Our goal is to construct provably-efficient importance…

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…

This paper introduces an open-ended sequential algorithm for computing the p-value of a test using Monte Carlo simulation. It guarantees that the resampling risk, the probability of a different decision than the one based on the theoretical…

The combination of continuum Many-Body Quantum physics and Monte Carlo methods provide a powerful and well established approach to first principles calculations for large systems. Replacing the exact solution of the problem with a…

Monte Carlo simulations are one of the major tools in statistical physics, complex system science, and other fields, and an increasing number of these simulations is run on distributed systems like clusters or grids. This raises the issue…

Confidence intervals for a binomial parameter or for the ratio of Poisson means are commonly desired in high energy physics (HEP) applications such as measuring a detection efficiency or branching ratio. Due to the discreteness of the data,…

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure,…

Simulations often involve the use of model parameters which are unknown or uncertain. For this reason, simulation experiments are often repeated for multiple combinations of parameter values, often iterating through parameter values lying…

We describe Monte Carlo methods for estimating lower envelopes of expectations of real random variables. We prove that the estimation bias is negative and that its absolute value shrinks with increasing sample size. We discuss fairly…

We use Monte Carlo techniques to simulate an organized prediction competition between a group of a scientific experts acting under the influence of a ``self-governing'' prediction reward algorithm. Our aim is to illustrate the advantages of…

In various high-energy physics contexts, such as neutrino-oscillation experiments, several assumptions underlying the typical asymptotic confidence interval construction are violated, such that one has to resort to computationally expensive…

We develop estimation and inference methods for a stylized macroeconomic model with potentially multiple behavioural equilibria, where agents form expectations using a constant-gain learning rule. We first show geometric ergodicity of the…

Sequential analysis encompasses simulation theories and methods where the sample size is determined dynamically based on accumulating data. Since the conceptual inception, numerous sequential stopping rules have been introduced, and many…

A method for analytic continuation of imaginary-time correlation functions (here obtained in quantum Monte Carlo simulations) to real-frequency spectral functions is proposed. Stochastically sampling a spectrum parametrized by a large…