相关论文: Constructing Ensembles of Pseudo-Experiments

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

When do nonparametric Bayesian procedures ``overfit''? To shed light on this question, we consider a binary regression problem in detail and establish frequentist consistency for a certain class of Bayes procedures based on hierarchical…

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…

Contemporary scientific studies often rely on the understanding of complex quantum systems via computer simulation. This paper initiates the statistical study of quantum simulation and proposes a Monte Carlo method for estimating…

Metrics of model goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and model parameter estimation are the main categories of statistical problems in science. Bayesian and frequentist methods that address these questions often rely on a likelihood…

The estimation of a density profile from experimental data points is a challenging problem, usually tackled by plotting a histogram. Prior assumptions on the nature of the density, from its smoothness to the specification of its form, allow…

Techniques for simulating molecules whose conformations satisfy constraints are presented. A method for selecting appropriate moves in Monte Carlo simulations is given. The resulting moves not only obey the constraints but also maintain…

We argue that one can associate a pseudo-time with sequences of configurations generated in the course of classical Monte Carlo simulations for a single-minimum bound state, if the sampling is optimal. Hereby the sampling rates can be,…

Counterfactuals are widely used to explain ML model predictions by providing alternative scenarios for obtaining the more desired predictions. They can be generated by a variety of methods that optimize different, sometimes conflicting,…

We show how information on the uniformity properties of a point set employed in numerical multidimensional integration can be used to improve the error estimate over the usual Monte Carlo one. We introduce a new measure of (non-)uniformity…

The problem of testing mutually exclusive hypotheses with dependent test statistics is considered. Bayesian and frequentist approaches to multiplicity control are studied and compared to help gain understanding as to the effect of test…

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…

We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a…

We introduce probability estimation, a broadly applicable framework to certify randomness in a finite sequence of measurement results without assuming that these results are independent and identically distributed. Probability estimation…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are primarily used for sampling from a given probability distribution and estimating multi-dimensional integrals based on the information contained in the generated samples. Whenever it is possible, more…

While the Quasi-Monte Carlo method of numerical integration achieves smaller integration error than standard Monte Carlo, its use in particle physics phenomenology has been hindered by the abscence of a reliable way to estimate that error.…

Strict frequentism defines probability as the limiting relative frequency in an infinite sequence. What if the limit does not exist? We present a broader theory, which is applicable also to random phenomena that exhibit diverging relative…

In this paper I introduce quantile spectral densities that summarize the cyclical behavior of time series across their whole distribution by analyzing periodicities in quantile crossings. This approach can capture systematic changes in the…

Theories of new physics often involve a large number of unknown parameters which need to be scanned. Additionally, a putative signal in a particular channel may be due to a variety of distinct models of new physics. This makes experimental…

This paper proposes a simple unified inference approach on moment restrictions in the presence of nuisance parameters. The proposed test is constructed based on a new characterization that avoids the estimation of nuisance parameters and…