相关论文: The Predictive Power of R0 in an Epidemic Probabil…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating $R_0$ from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In…
The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
In this paper, we provide a straightforward approach to defining and deriving the key epidemiological quantity, the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, for Markovian epidemics in structured populations. The methodology derived is applicable…
Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_0$, which…
When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These…
Accurate epidemic forecasting requires models that account for the layered and heterogeneous nature of real social interactions. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_0$ calculated from models that assume homogeneous mixing or…
In this work, we revisit the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ definition for analysis of epidemic-non-epidemic phases describing the dynamics of the discrete stochastic version of the epidemic $SIR$ model based on the Master…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…
A key parameter in models for the spread of infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number $R_0$, which is the expected number of secondary cases a typical infected primary case infects during its infectious period in a large mostly…
In this paper, we study a reaction-diffusion vector-host epidemic model. We define the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and show that $R_0$ is a threshold parameter: if $R_0\le 1$ the disease free steady state is globally stable; if $R_0>1$…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is an epidemiological metric that represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious individual in a completely susceptible population. The methodology for calculating this…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
The effect of diffusion rates on the basic reproduction number of a general compartmental reaction-diffusion epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment is considered. It is shown when the diffusion rates tend to zero, the limit of the…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…
We study the Suscectible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model on deterministic networks. For connected but otherwise general interaction patterns and heterogeneous recovery and loss-of-immunity rates, we identify a…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…