相关论文: VaR-Efficient Portfolios for a Class of Super- and…

We consider the tail behavior of random variables $R$ which are solutions of the distributional equation $R\stackrel{d}{=}Q+MR$, where $(Q,M)$ is independent of $R$ and $|M|\le 1$. Goldie and Gr\"{u}bel showed that the tails of $R$ are no…

We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…

Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…

In this work, we investigate how to develop sharp concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables, including sub-Gaussian and sub-exponential distributions. Although the random variables may not be sub-Guassian, the tail…

We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of…

Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…

It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

This paper develops a unified framework that integrates behavioral distortions into rational portfolio optimization by extracting implied probability weighting functions (PWFs) from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and…

In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…

Recently, Lee and Cha (2015, `On two generalized classes of discrete bivariate distributions', {\it American Statistician}, 221 - 230) proposed two general classes of discrete bivariate distributions. They have discussed some general…

Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…

This paper is devoted to study the optimal portfolio problem. Harry Markowitz's Ph.D. thesis prepared the ground for the mathematical theory of finance. In modern portfolio theory, we typically find asset returns that are modeled by a…

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

The aim of this article is to determine a new six-parameter Beta Weibull distribution and its various associated functions, namely the cumulative distribution, survival, probability density and hazard functions. Next, we determine the…

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…

This paper considers a new family of variational distributions motivated by Sklar's theorem. This family is based on new copula-like densities on the hypercube with non-uniform marginals which can be sampled efficiently, i.e. with a…

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

Let $X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}$ be $n$ real-valued dependent random variables. With motivation from Mitra and Resnick (2009), we derive the tail asymptotic expansion for the weighted sum of order statistics $X_{1:n}\leq \cdots \leq X_{n:n}$ of…

We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…