相关论文: Where do statistical models come from? Revisiting …

We propose a novel framework of the model specification test in regression using unlabeled test data. In many cases, we have conducted statistical inferences based on the assumption that we can correctly specify a model. However, it is…

Optimum designs for parameter estimation in generalized regression models are standardly based on the Fisher information matrix (cf. Atkinson et al (2014) for a recent exposition). The corresponding optimality criteria are related to the…

Haavelmo (1944) proposed a probabilistic structure for econometric modeling, aiming to make econometrics useful for decision making. His fundamental contribution has become thoroughly embedded in subsequent econometric research, yet it…

Fisher's Method of Maximum Likelihood is shown to be a procedure for the construction of likelihood intervals or regions, instead of a procedure of point estimation. Based on Fisher's articles and books it is justified that by estimation…

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

We trace a conceptual genealogy from Abraham de Moivre's derivation of the normal curve (1733) to the modern distributional approach to statistics. De Moivre's Approximatio ad Summam Terminorum Binomii gave the first systematic derivation…

Classical deep learning typically operates on individual cases. Despite its success, real-world usage often requires repeated inference to estimate statistical quantities for complex decision-making tasks involving uncertainty or…

A great deal of inference in statistics is based on making the approximation that a statistic is normally distributed. The error in doing so is generally $O(n^{-1/2})$ and can be very considerable when the distribution is heavily biased or…

Statistical models with latent structure have a history going back to the 1950s and have seen widespread use in the social sciences and, more recently, in computational biology and in machine learning. Here we study the basic latent class…

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We…

Statistical modeling can involve a tension between assumptions and statistical identification. The law of the observable data may not uniquely determine the value of a target parameter without invoking a key assumption, and, while…

In the past two decades, psychological science has experienced an unprecedented replicability crisis which uncovered several issues. Among others, statistical inference is too often viewed as an isolated procedure limited to the analysis of…

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…

Machine and Statistical learning techniques become more and more important for the analysis of psychological data. Four core concepts of machine learning are the bias variance trade-off, cross-validation, regularization, and basis…

This note provides a conceptual clarification of Ronald Aylmer Fisher's (1935) pioneering exact test in the context of the Lady Testing Tea experiment. It unveils a critical implicit assumption in Fisher's calibration: the taster minimizes…

In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…

The authors are doing the readers of Statistical Science a true service with a well-written and up-to-date overview of boosting that originated with the seminal algorithms of Freund and Schapire. Equally, we are grateful for high-level…

Time series models are ubiquitous in science, arising in any situation where researchers seek to understand how a system's behaviour changes over time. A key problem in time series modelling is \emph{inference}; determining properties of…

The rapid emergence of massive datasets in various fields poses a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods. Meanwhile, it provides opportunities for researchers to develop novel algorithms. Inspired by the idea of…