相关论文: Estimating heavy-tail exponents through max self-s…

The extremal index parameter theta characterizes the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary time series and has important applications in a number of areas, such as hydrology, telecommunications, finance and…

In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal…

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is capable of estimating…

The paper suggests a simple method of deriving minimax lower bounds to the accuracy of statistical inference on heavy tails. A well-known result by Hall and Welsh (Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 1079-1084) states that if $\hat{\alpha}_n$ is an…

Modeling heterogeneity on heavy-tailed distributions under a regression framework is challenging, and classical statistical methodologies usually place conditions on the distribution models to facilitate the learning procedure. However,…

We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…

We develop an unsupervised mixture model for non-negative, skewed and heavy-tailed data, such as losses in actuarial and risk management applications. The mixture has a lognormal component, which is usually appropriate for the body of the…

Heavy-tailed distributions are infamously difficult to estimate because their moments tend to infinity as the shape of the tail decay increases. Nevertheless, this study shows the utilization of a modified group of moments for estimating a…

We benchmark the robustness of maximum likelihood based uncertainty estimation methods to outliers in training data for regression tasks. Outliers or noisy labels in training data results in degraded performances as well as incorrect…

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

This paper devises a regression-type model for the situation where both the response and covariates are extreme. The proposed approach is designed for the setting where both the response and covariates are themselves block maxima, and thus…

Score-based diffusion models have become a powerful framework for generative modeling, with score estimation as a central statistical bottleneck. Existing guarantees for score estimation largely focus on light-tailed targets or rely on…

In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…

The extreme value index is a fundamental parameter in univariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT). It captures the tail behavior of a distribution and is central in the extrapolation beyond observed data. Among other semi-parametric methods (such…

We investigate high-dimensional sparse regression when both the noise and the design matrix exhibit heavy-tailed behavior. Standard algorithms typically fail in this regime, as heavy-tailed covariates distort the empirical risk geometry. We…

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…

Both empirical and theoretical investigations of scale-free network models have found that large degrees in a network exert an outsized impact on its structure. However, the tools used to infer the tail behavior of degree distributions in…

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an…