相关论文: Closed form expressions for Bayesian sample size

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators based on observations which are required to be neither independent nor identically distributed. We give general results on the rate of convergence of the…

Under standard regularity assumptions, we provide simple approximations for specific classes of fiducial and confidence distributions and discuss their connections with objective Bayesian posteriors. For a real parameter the approximations…

Parameter estimates in misspecified models converge to pseudo-true parameter values, which minimize a population objective function. Pseudo-true values often differ from quantities of economic interest, raising questions of how, if at all,…

The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…

We study the properties of variational Bayes approximations for exponential family models with missing values. It is shown that the iterative algorithm for obtaining the variational Bayesian estimator converges locally to the true value…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Distributed estimation methods have recently been used to compute the maximum likelihood estimate of the precision matrix for large graphical Gaussian models. Our aim, in this paper, is to give a Bayesian estimate of the precision matrix…

The aim of this note is to state a couple of general results about the properties of the penalized maximum likelihood estimators (pMLE) and of the posterior distribution for parametric models in a non-asymptotic setup and for possibly large…

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

There is a wide range of applications where the local extrema of a function are the key quantity of interest. However, there is surprisingly little work on methods to infer local extrema with uncertainty quantification in the presence of…

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

In statistical inference, confidence set procedures are typically evaluated based on their validity and width properties. Even when procedures achieve rate-optimal widths, confidence sets can still be excessively wide in practice due to…

We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…

We consider the estimation of densities in multiple subpopulations, where the available sample size in each subpopulation greatly varies. This problem occurs in epidemiology, for example, where different diseases may share similar…

We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the…

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal…

Despite their importance in supporting experimental conclusions, standard statistical tests are often inadequate for research areas, like the life sciences, where the typical sample size is small and the test assumptions difficult to…

In this paper, we study the classical problem of estimating the proportion of a finite population. First, we consider a fixed sample size method and derive an explicit sample size formula which ensures a mixed criterion of absolute and…