相关论文: Closed form expressions for Bayesian sample size

Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…

Estimates are constructed for the deviation of the concentration functions of sums of independent random variables with finite variances from the folded normal distribution function without any assumptions concerning the existence of the…

In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…

This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…

This is a review of asymptotic and non-asymptotic behaviour of Bayesian methods under model specification. In particular we focus on consistency, i.e. convergence of the posterior distribution to the point mass at the best parametric…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC,…

In the standard Bayesian framework data are assumed to be generated by a distribution parametrized by $\theta$ in a parameter space $\Theta$, over which a prior distribution $\pi$ is given. A Bayesian statistician quantifies the belief that…

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

For stochastic models with intractable likelihood functions, approximate Bayesian computation offers a way of approximating the true posterior through repeated comparisons of observations with simulated model outputs in terms of a small set…

We present an extension of local sensitivity analysis, also referred to as the perturbation approach for uncertainty quantification, to Bayesian inverse problems. More precisely, we show how moments of random variables with respect to the…

Typical Bayesian inference requires parameter identification via likelihood parameterization, which has invited criticism for being less flexible than the Frequentist framework and subject to misspecification. Though misspecification may be…

In this paper we propose a Bayesian answer to testing problems when the hypotheses are not well separated. The idea of the method is to study the posterior distribution of a discrepancy measure between the parameter and the model we want to…

Good large sample performance is typically a minimum requirement of any model selection criterion. This article focuses on the consistency property of the Bayes factor, a commonly used model comparison tool, which has experienced a recent…

We study the rates of convergence of the posterior distribution for Bayesian density estimation with Dirichlet mixtures of normal distributions as the prior. The true density is assumed to be twice continuously differentiable. The bandwidth…

We obtain the large deviation functional of a density profile for the asymmetric exclusion process of L sites with open boundary conditions when the asymmetry scales like 1/L. We recover as limiting cases the expressions derived recently…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

In this work we propose a semiparametric bivariate copula whose density is defined by a piecewise constant function on disjoint squares. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of model parameters and prove that they reduce to the…

Bayesian variable selection often assumes normality, but the effects of model misspecification are not sufficiently understood. There are sound reasons behind this assumption, particularly for large $p$: ease of interpretation, analytical…

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

The problem of binary hypothesis testing between two probability measures is considered. New sharp bounds are derived for the best achievable error probability of such tests based on independent and identically distributed observations.…