相关论文: Adaptive confidence balls

We consider the problem of constructing Bayesian based confidence sets for linear functionals in the inverse Gaussian white noise model. We work with a scale of Gaussian priors indexed by a regularity hyper-parameter and apply the…

A confidence distribution is a distribution for a parameter of interest based on a parametric statistical model. As such, it serves the same purpose for frequentist statisticians as a posterior distribution for Bayesians, since it allows to…

We derive an upper bound on the size of a ball such that the image of the ball under quadratic map is strongly convex and smooth. Our result is the best possible improvement of the analogous result by Polyak in the case of quadratic map. We…

A priori bound for the parameter to be estimated is incorporated into confidence intervals within frequentistic approach in a straightforward and optimal fashion, ensuring the best resolution of non-boundary values as well as robustness for…

We propose a multi-scale extension of conformal prediction, an approach that constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal statistical assumptions. Classic conformal prediction relies on a single notion of…

Automatic numerical algorithms attempt to provide approximate solutions that differ from exact solutions by no more than a user-specified error tolerance. The computational cost is often determined \emph{adaptively} by the algorithm based…

Confidence intervals are a popular way to visualize and analyze data distributions. Unlike p-values, they can convey information both about statistical significance as well as effect size. However, very little work exists on applying…

Volume of metric balls relates to rate-distortion theory and packing bounds on codes. In this paper, the volume of balls in complex Grassmann manifolds is evaluated for an arbitrary radius. The ball is defined as a set of hyperplanes of a…

Vertically weighted averages perform a bilateral filtering of data, in order to preserve fine details of the underlying signal, especially discontinuities such as jumps (in dimension one) or edges (in dimension two). In homogeneous regions…

Dimensionality reduction is a fundamental task in modern data science. Several projection methods specifically tailored to take into account the non-linearity of the data via local embeddings have been proposed. Such methods are often based…

In decision-making problems under uncertainty, probabilistic constraints are a valuable tool to express safety of decisions. They result from taking the probability measure of a given set of random inequalities depending on the decision…

Computer experiments with quantitative and qualitative inputs are widely used to study many scientific and engineering processes. Much of the existing work has focused on design and modeling or process optimization for such experiments.…

This paper proposes a distributionally robust approach to logistic regression. We use the Wasserstein distance to construct a ball in the space of probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples. If…

This paper is concerned with the computable error estimates for the eigenvalue problem which is solved by the general conforming finite element methods on the general meshes. Based on the computable error estimate, we can give an…

We provide adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters when some of the nuisance parameters have known signs. The confidence intervals are adaptive in the sense that they tend to be short…

We derive closed form expressions for the lower expectations that correspond to total variation distance and chi-squared divergence balls around a probability mass function over a finite set.

The reliable measurement of confidence in classifiers' predictions is very important for many applications and is, therefore, an important part of classifier design. Yet, although deep learning has received tremendous attention in recent…

The construction of confidence intervals for the mean of a bounded random variable is a classical problem in statistics with numerous applications in machine learning and virtually all scientific fields. In particular, obtaining the…

We develop honest and locally adaptive confidence bands for probability densities. They provide substantially improved confidence statements in case of inhomogeneous smoothness, and are easily implemented and visualized. The article…

While efficient distribution learning is no doubt behind the groundbreaking success of diffusion modeling, its theoretical guarantees are quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous analysis on approximation and…