相关论文: Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale …

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most…

Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a…

Speculative bubbles exhibit common statistical signatures across many financial markets, suggesting the presence of universal underlying mechanisms. We test this hypothesis in the Iranian stock market, an economy that is highly isolated,…

Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In \cite{SZ02QF}, we have proposed to describe this…

A phenomenon of the financial log-periodicity is discussed and the characteristics that amplify its predictive potential are elaborated. The principal one is self-similarity that obeys across all the time scales. Furthermore the same…

Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed…

The presence of log-periodic structures before and after stock market crashes is considered to be an imprint of an intrinsic discrete scale invariance (DSI) in this complex system. The fractal framework of the theory leaves open the…

Renowned method of log-periodic power law(LPPL) is one of the few ways that a financial market crash could be predicted. Alongside with LPPL, this paper propose a novel method of stock market crash using white box model derived from simple…

The drift burst hypothesis postulates the existence of short-lived locally explosive trends in the price paths of financial assets. The recent U.S. equity and treasury flash crashes can be viewed as two high-profile manifestations of such…

Financial markets are systems with the complex behavior, that can be hardly analyzed by means of linear methods. Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) is a nonlinear methodology, which is able to work with the nonstationary and short…

This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 index for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, we investigate the evolution of the market space and define a new measure for that purpose, which is a robust…

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…

We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset…

The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of a bubble period with those of the anti-bubble period in stock markets. We investigate the statistical properties of daily data for the Nikkei 225 index in the 28-year period from…

We investigate the recently introduced variety of a set of stock returns traded in a financial market. This investigation is done by considering daily and intraday time horizons in a 15-day time period centered at the August 31st, 1998…

We investigate the dynamics of correlations present between pairs of industry indices of US stocks traded in US markets by studying correlation based networks and spectral properties of the correlation matrix. The study is performed by…

We analyze 27 house price indexes of Las Vegas from Jun. 1983 to Mar. 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real-estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than exponential,…

Specialized topics on financial data analysis from a numerical and physical point of view are discussed. They pertain to the analysis of crash prediction in stock market indices and to the persistence or not of coherent and random sequences…

Based on our "finance-prediction-oriented" methodology which involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble" we analyze the 2009 world…

The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets.…