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We propose a robust optimization approach for constructing confidence bands for stochastic processes using a finite number of simulated sample paths. Our approach can be used to quantify uncertainty in realizations of stochastic processes…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-08-13 Timothy Chan , Jangwon Park , Vahid Sarhangian

We analyze the stability of financial investment networks, where financial institutions hold overlapping portfolios of assets. We consider the effect of portfolio diversification and heterogeneous investments using a random matrix dynamical…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-02-03 Preben Forer , Barak Budnick , Pierpaolo Vivo , Sabrina Aufiero , Silvia Bartolucci , Fabio Caccioli

A deterministic trading strategy by a representative investor on a single market asset, which generates complex and realistic returns with its first four moments similar to the empirical values of European stock indices, is used to simulate…

综合金融 · 定量金融 2016-09-08 Philip Maymin

In this work we study the problem of measuring the fairness of a machine learning model under noisy information. Focusing on group fairness metrics, we investigate the particular but common situation when the evaluation requires controlling…

Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies. Despite its popularity, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure. We…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-07-21 Matias D. Cattaneo , Richard K. Crump , Max H. Farrell , Ernst Schaumburg

In real dialogue scenarios, as there are unknown input noises in the utterances, existing supervised slot filling models often perform poorly in practical applications. Even though there are some studies on noise-robust models, these works…

Humans and other animals base their decisions on noisy sensory input. Much work has therefore been devoted to understanding the computations that underly such decisions. The problem has been studied in a variety of tasks and with stimuli of…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2015-03-05 Manisha Bhardwaj , Sam Carroll , Wei Ji Ma , Kresimir Josic

Regulatory stress tests have become one of the main tools for setting capital requirements at the largest U.S. banks. The Federal Reserve uses confidential models to evaluate bank-specific outcomes for bank-specific portfolios in shared…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-05-15 Paul Glasserman , Mike Li

The estimation of modal parameters from a set of noisy measured data is a highly judgmental task, with user expertise playing a significant role in distinguishing between estimated physical and noise modes of a test-piece. Various methods…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-09-13 Vahid Yaghoubi , Majid K. Vakilzadeh , Thomas J. S. Abrahamsson

The project managers who deal with risk management are often faced with the difficult task of determining the relative importance of the various sources of risk that affect the project. This prioritisation is crucial to direct management…

For long term investments, model portfolios are defined at the level of indexes, a setup known as Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). The possible outcomes at a scale of a few decades can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, resulting in a…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-11-25 Gilles Zumbach

We study the effect of a weak random additive noise in a linear chain of N locally-coupled logistic maps at the edge of chaos. Maps tend to synchronize for a strong enough coupling, but if a weak noise is added, very intermittent…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-06-05 Alessandro Pluchino , Andrea Rapisarda , Constantino Tsallis

Derivative hedging and pricing are important and continuously studied topics in financial markets. Recently, deep hedging has been proposed as a promising approach that uses deep learning to approximate the optimal hedging strategy and can…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2024-04-16 Masanori Hirano

Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2018-02-02 Sebastian Poledna , Serafín Martínez-Jaramillo , Fabio Caccioli , Stefan Thurner

Non-symmetric rectangular correlation matrices occur in many problems in economics. We test the method of extracting statistically meaningful correlations between input and output variables of large dimensionality and build a toy model for…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2018-08-01 Małgorzata Snarska

In this work, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem under hard constraints on trading amounts, transaction costs and different rates for borrowing and lending when the risky asset returns are serially correlated. No…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2014-10-30 Vladimir Dombrovskii , Tatyana Obedko

When modelling time series, it is common to decompose observed variation into a "signal" process, the process of interest, and "noise", representing nuisance factors that obfuscate the signal. To separate signal from noise, assumptions must…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-11 Richard Creswell , Ben Lambert , Chon Lok Lei , Martin Robinson , David Gavaghan

Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2009-08-06 Andreas Martin Lisewski

Stochastic inverse problems considered in this article consist of estimating the probability distributions of intrinsically random inputs of computer models. These estimations are based on observable outputs affected by model noise, and…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-03-17 Nicolas Bousquet , Mélanie Blazère , Thomas Cerbelaud

Modern technologies are producing datasets with complex intrinsic structures, and they can be naturally represented as matrices instead of vectors. To preserve the latent data structures during processing, modern regression approaches…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-11-16 Hang Zhang , Fengyuan Zhu , Shixin Li