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Financial markets exhibit alternating periods of rising and falling prices. Stock traders seeking to make profitable investment decisions have to account for those trends, where the goal is to accurately predict switches from bullish…

Motivated by the prevalence of prediction problems in the economy, we study markets in which firms sell models to a consumer to help improve their prediction. Firms decide whether to enter, choose models to train on their data, and set…

We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential,…

A model of fluctuations in the market price including many deterministic dealers, who predict their buying and selling prices from the latest price change, is developed. We show that price changes of the model is approximated by ARCH(1)…

I present an overview of some recent advancements on the empirical analysis and theoretical modeling of the process of price formation in financial markets as the result of the arrival of orders in a limit order book exchange. After…

We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…

Prediction markets are powerful tools to elicit and aggregate beliefs from strategic agents. However, in current prediction markets, agents may exhaust the social welfare by competing to be the first to update the market. We initiate the…

I find a topological arrangement of stocks traded in a financial market which has associated a meaningful economic taxonomy. The topological space is a graph connecting the stocks of the portfolio analyzed. The graph is obtained starting…

The information released to investors in financial markets has various forms. We refer to range information as information about the upper and lower bound which the payoff of a risky asset may reach in the future. This study develops…

A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of price formation in financial markets is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site,…

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…

A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of…

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

This paper aims to provide a practical example on the assessment and propagation of input uncertainty for option pricing when using tree-based methods. Input uncertainty is propagated into output uncertainty, reflecting that option prices…

A deterministic trading strategy by a representative investor on a single market asset, which generates complex and realistic returns with its first four moments similar to the empirical values of European stock indices, is used to simulate…

We study the power and limitations of posted prices in multi-unit markets, where agents arrive sequentially in an arbitrary order. We prove upper and lower bounds on the largest fraction of the optimal social welfare that can be guaranteed…

With the rise of computing and artificial intelligence, advanced modeling and forecasting has been applied to High Frequency markets. A crucial element of solid production modeling though relies on the investigation of data distributions…

This paper initiates a study into the century-old issue of market predictability from the perspective of computational complexity. We develop a simple agent-based model for a stock market where the agents are traders equipped with simple…

The price fluctuations in the financial markets are the result of the individual operations by many individual investors. However for many decades the finacial theory did not use directly this "microscopic representation". The difficulties…

We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late…