相关论文: Bayesian evidence as a tool for comparing datasets

A method is presented for performing joint analyses of cosmological datasets, in which the weight assigned to each dataset is determined directly by it own statistical properties. The weights are considered in a Bayesian context as a set of…

The Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current…

Tensions between cosmological measurements by different surveys or probes have always been important --- and are presently much discussed --- as they may lead to evidence of new physics. Several tests have been devised to probe the…

Constraints on cosmological parameters are often distilled from sky surveys by fitting templates to summary statistics of the data that are motivated by a fiducial cosmological model. However, recent work has shown how to estimate the…

The ratio of Bayesian evidences is a popular tool in cosmology to compare different models. There are however several issues with this method: Bayes' ratio depends on the prior even in the limit of non-informative priors, and Jeffrey's…

We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…

Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of…

Bayesian evidence is a standard tool used for comparing the ability of different models to fit available data and is used extensively in cosmology. However, since the evidence calculation involves performing an integral of the likelihood…

Model selection aims to determine which theoretical models are most plausible given some data, without necessarily asking about the preferred values of the model parameters. A common model selection question is to ask when new data require…

The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more…

The model evidence is a vital quantity in the comparison of statistical models under the Bayesian paradigm. This paper presents a review of commonly used methods. We outline some guidelines and offer some practical advice. The reviewed…

Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into…

In this paper we consider the issue of paradigm evaluation by applying Bayes' theorem along the following nested hierarchy of progressively more complex structures: i) parameter estimation (within a model), ii) model selection and…

Both the Bayes factor and the relative belief ratio satisfy the principle of evidence and so can be seen to be valid measures of statistical evidence. Certainly Bayes factors are regularly employed. The question then is: which of these…

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…

There has been increasing interest by cosmologists in applying Bayesian techniques, such as Bayesian Evidence, for model selection. A typical example is in assessing whether observational data favour a cosmological constant over evolving…

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

This article introduces a Bayesian nonparametric method for quantifying the relative evidence in a dataset in favour of the dependence or independence of two variables conditional on a third. The approach uses Polya tree priors on spaces of…

Scientific claims gain credibility by replicability, especially if replication under different circumstances and varying designs yields equivalent results. Aggregating results over multiple studies is, however, not straightforward, and when…

Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…