相关论文: Bayesian evidence as a tool for comparing datasets

We provide a new interpretation for the Bayes factor combination used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first year analysis to quantify the tension between the DES and Planck datasets. The ratio quantifies a Bayesian confidence in our ability…

One of the best ways of spotting previously undetected systematic errors in CMB experiments is to compare two independent observations of the same region. We derive a set of tools for comparing and combining CMB data sets, applicable also…

For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify…

Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an…

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence…

To understand their data better, astronomers need to use statistical tools that are more advanced than traditional ``freshman lab'' statistics. As an illustration, the problem of combining apparently incompatible measurements of a quantity…

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…

Causal discovery is to learn cause-effect relationships among variables given observational data and is important for many applications. Existing causal discovery methods assume data sufficiency, which may not be the case in many real world…

The original formulation of BEAMS - Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species - showed how to use a dataset contaminated by points of multiple underlying types to perform unbiased parameter estimation. An example is cosmological…

In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…

We present three tiers of Bayesian consistency tests for the general case of $correlated$ datasets. Building on duplicates of the model parameters assigned to each dataset, these tests range from Bayesian evidence ratios as a global summary…

In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…

Measures of discordance between datasets have become an essential part of cosmological analyses. It is important to accurately evaluate the significance of such discordances when present. We propose here a Bayesian interpretation of…

We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…

We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full…

We construct a probabilistic coherence measure for information sets which determines a partial coherence ordering. This measure is applied in constructing a criterion for expanding our beliefs in the face of new information. A number of…

The score test statistic using the observed information is easy to compute numerically. Its large sample distribution under the null hypothesis is well known and is equivalent to that of the score test based on the expected information, the…

We introduce a statistical measure of the effective model complexity, called the Bayesian complexity. We demonstrate that the Bayesian complexity can be used to assess how many effective parameters a set of data can support and that it is a…

The abundance of new cosmological data becoming available means that a wider range of cosmological models are testable than ever before. However, an important distinction must be made between parameter fitting and model selection. While…