相关论文: A Stochastic Diffusion Model of Climate Change

A key feature of the classical Fluctuation Dissipation theorem is its ability to approximate the average response of a dynamical system to a sufficiently small external perturbation from an appropriate time correlation function of the…

A comprehensive statistical model for vertical profiles of the horizontal wind and temperature throughout the troposphere is presented. The model is based on radiosonde measurements of wind and temperature during several years. The profiles…

We study the random walk of a particle in a compartmentalized environment, as realized in biological samples or solid state compounds. Each compartment is characterized by its length $L$ and the boundaries transmittance $T$. We identify two…

A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…

Dynamic heterogeneity has often been modeled by assuming that a single-particle observable, fluctuating at a molecular scale, is influenced by its coupling to environmental variables fluctuating on a second, perhaps slower, time scale.…

Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…

We study heat transport in a one-dimensional chain of a finite number $N$ of identical cells, coupled at its boundaries to stochastic particle reservoirs. At the center of each cell, tracer particles collide with fixed scatterers,…

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…

A microscopic, driven lattice gas model is proposed for the dynamics and spatio-temporal fluctuations of the precursor film observed in spreading experiments. Matter is transported both by holes and particles, and the distribution of each…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

This paper considers a new model of individual displacement, based on fish motion, the so-called Persistent Turning Walker (PTW) model, which involves an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on the curvature of the particle trajectory. The goal is to…

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…

A considerable number of systems have recently been reported in which Brownian yet non-Gaussian dynamics was observed. These are processes characterised by a linear growth in time of the mean squared displacement, yet the probability…

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

Modeling turbulent flows by a random Fourier decomposition is a classical procedure in order to use simplified models of turbulence in heat transport and other applications. We carefully investigate the Fourier time series of…

Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by…

In this article a stochastic cellular automata model is examined, which has been developed to study a "small" world, where local changes may noticeably alter global characteristics. This is applied to a climate model, where global…

Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea…

A position-dependent stochastic diffusion model of gating in ion channels is developed by considering the spatial variation of the diffusion coefficient between the closed and open states. It is assumed that a sensor which regulates the…