相关论文: A Stochastic Diffusion Model of Climate Change

The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…

The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…

Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…

The physics of planetary climate features a variety of complex systems that are challenging to model as they feature turbulent flows. A key example is the heat flux from the upper ocean to the underside of sea ice which provides a key…

This paper proposes a physical-statistical modeling approach for spatio-temporal data arising from a class of stochastic convection-diffusion processes. Such processes are widely found in scientific and engineering applications where…

We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…

Stochastic diffusion is the noisy and uncertain process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly important as we attempt to…

This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for…

Mathematical models of motility are often based on random-walk descriptions of discrete individuals that can move according to certain rules. It is usually the case that large masses concentrated in small regions of space have a great…

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

Mathematically modelling diffusive and advective transport of particles in heterogeneous layered media is important to many applications in computational, biological and medical physics. While deterministic continuum models of such…

We compute profile likelihoods for a stochastic model of diffusive transport motivated by experimental observations of heat conduction in layered skin tissues. This process is modelled as a random walk in a layered one-dimensional material,…

Spatial heteroskedasticity refers to stochastically changing variances and covariances in space. Such features have been observed in, for example, air pollution and vegetation data. We study how volatility modulated moving averages can…

We present a stochastic model of gait rhythm dynamics, based on transitions between different ``neural centers'', that reproduces distinctive statistical properties of normal human walking. By tuning one model parameter, the hopping range,…

A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…

Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…

A novel model of intermittency is presented in which the dynamics of the rates of energy transfer between successive steps in the energy cascade is described by a hierarchy of stochastic differential equations. The probability distribution…

This paper studies a stochastic model that describes the evolution of vehicle densities in a road network. It is consistent with the class of (deterministic) kinematic wave models, which describe traffic flows on the basis of conservation…

A theory is described based on resonant thermal diffusion waves in the sun that appears to explain many details of the paleotemperature record for the last 5.3 million years. These include the observed periodicities, the relative strengths…

A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…