相关论文: Multi-state model with temporal-consistent surviva…

In this paper, the recurrent events that can occur more than one over the follow-up time have been modeled by phase-type distributions. We use the finite-state continuous-time Markov process with multi states for patients with recurrent…

The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

In this paper, we demonstrate through the use of matrix calculus a transparent analysis of fractional inhomogeneous Markov models for life insurance where transition matrices commute. The resulting formulae are intuitive matrix…

Many biological and medical questions can be modeled using time-to-event data in finite-state Markov chains, with the phase-type distribution describing intervals between events. We solve the inverse problem: given a phase-type…

In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…

We develop a systematic matrix-analytic approach, based on intertwinings of Markov semigroups, for proving theorems about hitting-time distributions for finite-state Markov chains -- an approach that (sometimes) deepens understanding of the…

We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…

In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an…

We present two data-driven procedures to estimate the transition density of an homogeneous Markov chain. The first yields to a piecewise constant estimator on a suitable random partition. By using an Hellinger-type loss, we establish…

Markov cohort state-transition models have been the standard approach for simulating the prognosis of patients or, more generally, the life trajectories of individuals over a time period. Current approaches for estimating the variance of a…

We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the…

We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Although the notion of diagnostic problem has been extensively investigated in the context of static systems, in most practical applications the behavior of the modeled system is significantly variable during time. The goal of the paper is…

We develop an approach to time-consistent risk evaluation of continuous-time processes in Markov systems. Our analysis is based on dual representation of coherent risk measures, differentiability concepts for multivalued mappings, and a…

Multi-state survival analysis considers several potential events of interest along a disease pathway. Such analyses are crucial to model complex patient trajectories and are increasingly being used in epidemiological and health economic…

Cure rate models address survival data in which a proportion of individuals will never experience the event of interest. Existing parametric approaches are predominantly based on finite mixtures, which impose restrictive assumptions on both…

Semi-Markov models are widely used for survival analysis and reliability analysis. In general, there are two competing parameterizations and each entails its own interpretation and inference properties. On the one hand, a semi-Markov…

Immune events such as infection, vaccination, and a combination of the two result in distinct time-dependent antibody responses in affected individuals. These responses and event prevalences combine non-trivially to govern antibody levels…

Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state…