相关论文: Evaluating the skill of a geometric early warning …
Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…
We investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) coupled bistable systems when using measures based on critical…
Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when time-variation of input parameters of a dynamical system interacts with system timescales to give genuine nonautonomous instabilities. Such instabilities appear as the input varies at some…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node…
Sudden transitions in the state of a system are often undesirable in natural and human-made systems. Such transitions under fast variation of system parameters are called rate-induced tipping. We experimentally demonstrate rate-induced…
In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes…
Complex dynamical systems-such as climate, ecosystems, and economics-can undergo catastrophic and potentially irreversible regime changes, often triggered by environmental parameter drift and stochastic disturbances. These critical…
Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dynamic effects arise from changes in a parameter that are…
The possibility of rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) away from an attracting fixed point has been thoroughly explored in 1-dimensional systems. In these systems, it is impossible to have R-tipping away from a path of quasi-stable equilibria…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
Tipping points have been actively studied in various applications as well as from a mathematical viewpoint. A main technique to theoretically understand early-warning signs for tipping points is to use the framework of fast-slow stochastic…
Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…
Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…