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We consider Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) of weighted average treatment effects (WATEs), a class of causal estimands that reweight the covariate distribution using a specified function of the propensity score. This class…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-02 Yang Liu , Patrick Lopatto , Ivana Malenica

Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-30 Sky Qiu , Jens Tarp , Andrew Mertens , Mark van der Laan

Estimating the mean counterfactual outcome under a treatment rule is a central problem in causal inference and policy evaluation. Standard estimators, including inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Yichen Xu , Mark J. van der Laan

Augmenting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with external data may increase power at the risk of introducing bias. To select and analyze the experiment (RCT alone or combined with external data) with the optimal bias-variance tradeoff,…

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Haodong Li , Alan E Hubbard , Oliver J Hines , Andrea M Storås , Kajsa Kvist , Mark van der Laan

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) is a causal measure for the comparison of interventions in a specific target population, which may be different from the population where data are sampled from. For instance, when the goal is to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-04-17 Yebin Tao , Haoda Fu

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) when both randomized control trial (RCT) data and external real-world data (RWD) are available. We decompose the ATE estimand as the difference between a pooled-ATE…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Mark van der Laan , Sky Qiu , Jens Magelund Tarp , Lars van der Laan

To promote precision medicine, individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) are crucial for optimizing the expected clinical outcome based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing ITR research has primarily focused on scenarios…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-20 Chang Wang , Lu Wang

Genome-wide association analysis has generated much discussion about how to preserve power to detect signals despite the detrimental effect of multiple testing on power. We develop a weighted multiple testing procedure that facilitates the…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Kathryn Roeder , Bernie Devlin , Larry Wasserman

Estimating average treatment effects from observational data is challenging under practical violations of the positivity assumption. Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimators (TMLEs) are widely used because of their double robustness and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-28 Yichen Xu , Susan Gruber , Mark J. van der Laan

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

The primary analysis of clinical trials in diabetes therapeutic area often involves a mixed-model repeated measure (MMRM) approach to estimate the average treatment effect for longitudinal continuous outcome, and a generalized linear mixed…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-08-03 Lingjing Jiang , Michael Rosenblum , Yu Du

In this study, we construct two tests for the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) in a high-dimensional setting, namely, when the number of assets $p$ depends on the sample size $n$ such that $\frac{p}{n}\to c \in (0,1)$…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2023-04-19 Taras Bodnar , Solomiia Dmytriv , Nestor Parolya , Wolfgang Schmid

Subgroup analyses within randomized controlled trials are often underpowered due to limited sample sizes. We address this challenge by leveraging trial participants outside the subgroup of interest to augment estimation within the subgroup.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-18 Sky Qiu , Nerissa Nance , Rachael Phillips , Jens Tarp , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often underpowered to detect treatment heterogeneity in subgroups defined by cross-classifications of multiple covariates, due to sparse sample sizes in some strata. External RCT data can help, but…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-23 Youqi Yang , Walter Dempsey , Bhramar Mukherjee

Background: Phase I dose-finding trials increasingly encounter delayed-onset toxicities, especially with immunotherapies and targeted agents. The time-to-event continual reassessment method (TITE-CRM) handles incomplete follow-up using…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-24 Robert Amevor , Emmanuel Kubuafor , Dennis Baidoo

In the world of targeted learning, cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimators, CV-TMLE [Zheng:2010aa], has a distinct advantage over TMLE [Laan:2006aa] in that one less condition is required of CV-TMLE in order to achieve…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-11-14 Jonathan Levy

Study populations are typically sampled from limited points in space and time, and marginalized groups are underrepresented. To assess the external validity of randomized and observational studies, we propose and evaluate the worst-case…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-02-04 Sookyo Jeong , Hongseok Namkoong

The positivity assumption, or the experimental treatment assignment (ETA) assumption, is important for identifiability in causal inference. Even if the positivity assumption holds, practical violations of this assumption may jeopardize the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-07-20 Cheng Ju , Joshua Schwab , Mark J. van der Laan
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