相关论文: Sub-seasonal Modulation and Predictability of Indi…
Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio-economic value. It represents a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained…
The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence…
Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…
Large socio-economic impact of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) extremes motivated numerous attempts at its long range prediction over the past century. However, a rather estimated low potential predictability limit (PPL) of seasonal…
Forecasts of monsoon rainfall for India are made at national scale. But there is spatial coherence and heterogeneity that is relevant to forecasting. This paper considers year-to-year rainfall change and annual extremes at sub-national…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…
An unresolved problem of present generation coupled climate models is the realistic distribution of rainfall over Indian monsoon region, which is also related to the persistent dry bias over Indian land mass. Therefore, quantitative…
Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…
Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
Extreme rainfall over the Indian monsoon region poses severe societal and infrastructural risks but remains difficult to predict at daily time scales due to stochastic convective triggering and multiscale atmospheric interactions. While…
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and associated monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) influence the billions of people living in the Indian subcontinent. This study explores the role of autoconversion parameterization in microphysical…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…
Downscaling is necessary to generate high-resolution observation data to validate the climate model forecast or monitor rainfall at the micro-regional level operationally. Dynamical and statistical downscaling models are often used to get…
The seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), as well as the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) that strongly modulate MISO, is important to the country for water and crop…
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food…
The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…