相关论文: Resilient-to-Fragile Transition and Excess Volatil…
We model the production of complex goods in a large supply network. Each firm sources several essential inputs through relationships with other firms. Individual supply relationships are at risk of idiosyncratic failure, which threatens to…
We study a dynamical model of interconnected firms which allows for certain market imperfections and frictions, restricted here to be myopic price forecasts and slow adjustment of production. Whereas the standard rational equilibrium is…
In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…
Why do capitalist economies recurrently generate crises whose severity is disproportionate to the size of the triggering shock? This paper proposes a structural answer grounded in the evolutionary geometry of production networks. As…
We study the conditions under which input-output networks can dynamically attain a competitive equilibrium, where markets clear and profits are zero. We endow a classical firm network model with minimal dynamical rules that reduce…
Supply chain disruptions cause shortages of raw material and products. To increase resilience, i.e., the ability to cope with shocks, substituting goods in established supply chains can become an effective alternative to creating new…
Modern production systems are increasingly defined by dense networks of multi-tier sourcing dependencies, where localized upstream disruptions can cascade into system-wide collapses. While supply chain resilience has garnered significant…
The transient fluctuation of the prosperity of firms in a network economy is investigated with an abstract stochastic model. The model describes the profit which firms make when they sell materials to a firm which produces a product and the…
Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping…
Socio-technical systems, where technological and human elements interact in a goal-oriented manner, provide important functional support to our societies. Here we draw attention to the underappreciated concept of timeliness -- i.e., system…
We study how product specialization choices affect supply chain resilience. We propose a theory of supply chain formation in which only compatible inputs can be used in final production. Intermediate producers choose how much to specialize…
Recent crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have exposed vulnerabilities and caused disruptions of supply chains, leading to product shortages, increased costs, and economic instability. This has prompted increasing…
I study the role of industries' position in supply chains in shaping the transmission of final demand shocks. First, I use a novel shift-share design leveraging destination-specific final demand shocks and a new measure of destination…
Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine) - that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies - this paper explores the supply…
Empirical data reveals that the liquidity flow into the order book (depositions, cancellations andmarket orders) is influenced by past price changes. In particular, we show that liquidity tends todecrease with the amplitude of past…
National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…
Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in…
Supply networks are essential for modern production, yet their critical properties remain understudied. We present a stochastic model with random production capacities to analyze material flow to a root node, focusing on topology and buffer…