相关论文: Extinction and Persistence in a Stochastic Mpox Mo…
The transmission of monkeypox is studied using a stochastic model taking into account the biological aspects, the contact mechanisms and the demographic factors together with the intrinsic uncertainties. Our results provide insight into the…
This paper presents a stochastic model motivated by the study of a virus-like evolving population with different mutation rates. This is a continuous time birth-death model: the birth processes are mutually-exciting Hawkes processes and the…
We present an explicit unified stochastic model of fluctuations in population size due to random birth, death, density-dependent competition and environmental fluctuations. Stochastic dynamics provide insight into small populations,…
The effect of stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with two distinct time-scales is presented. A supercritical singular Hopf bifurcation yields a Type II excitability in the deterministic model. We…
This paper explores a stochastic Gause predator-prey model with bounded or sub-linear functional response. The model, described by a system of stochastic differential equations, captures the influence of stochastic fluctuations on…
In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…
Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only…
The extinction and persistence of infective individuals are closely related to the random change of the environment. In this paper, via the random/stochastic SIRS models, we analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact caused by the…
Spatially explicit models have been widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work--static dispersal between…
Motivated by modeling the dynamics of a population living in a flowing medium where the environmental factors are random in space, we have studied an asymmetric variant of the one-dimensional contact process, where the quenched random…
This article is concerned with a version of the contact process with sexual reproduction on a graph with two levels of interactions modeling metapopulations. The population is spatially distributed into patches and offspring are produced in…
We analyze the long term behavior of interacting populations which can be controlled through harvesting. The dynamics is assumed to be discrete in time and stochastic due to the effect of environmental fluctuations. We present extinction…
For a stochastic COVID-19 model with jump-diffusion, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution. We also investigate some conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease. We calculate the threshold of…
We study a stochastic spatial epidemic model where the $N$ individuals carry two features: a position and an infection state, interact and move in $\R^d$. In this Markovian model, the evolution of the infection states are described with the…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
We consider the classical two-dimensional Rosenzweig-MacArthur prey-predator model with a degenerate noise, whereby only the prey variable is subject to small environmental fluctuations. This model has already been introduced in…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 50's with the KiSS (after Kierstead, Slobodkin…
The stacked contact process is a stochastic model for the spread of an infection within a population of hosts located on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Regardless of whether they are healthy or infected, hosts give birth and die at…
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…