相关论文: Debt, Growth, and the Carbon Lock-In

A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of…

Global warming from carbon dioxide (CO2) is known to depend on cumulative CO2 emissions. We introduce a model of global expenditures on limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, taking into account effects of decarbonization and rising global…

We estimate the causal effect of external debt on greenhouse gas emissions in a panel of 78 emerging market and developing economies over the 1990-2015 period. Unlike previous literature, we use external instruments to address the potential…

This paper presents a model that studies the impact of credit expansions arising from increases in collateral values or lower interest rate policies on long-run productivity and economic growth in a two-sector endogenous growth economy,…

In a prior study, I introduced a simple economic growth model designed to be consistent with general thermodynamic laws. Unlike traditional economic models, civilization is viewed only as a well-mixed global whole with no distinction made…

This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the…

We study the relationship between foreign debt and GDP growth using a panel dataset of 50 countries from 1997 to 2015. We find that economic growth correlates positively with foreign debt and that the relationship is causal in nature by…

Under the guidance of the dual-carbon target, the development of the carbon financial system is of great significance to compensate for the gap between green and low-carbon investment. Considering the current state of the development of…

We explore the interplay between sovereign debt default/renegotiation and environmental factors (e.g., pollution from land use, natural resource exploitation). Pollution contributes to the likelihood of natural disasters and influences…

We consider a government that aims at reducing the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of a country. The government observes the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio and an indicator of the state of the economy, but does not directly…

We propose a non-linear state-space model to examine the relationship between CO$_2$ emissions, energy sources, and macroeconomic activity, using data from 1971 to 2019. CO$_2$ emissions are modeled as a weighted sum of fossil fuel use,…

Carbon emissions significantly contribute to climate change, and carbon credits have emerged as a key tool for mitigating environmental damage and helping organizations manage their carbon footprint. Despite their growing importance across…

With negative growth in real production in many countries and debt levels which become an increasing burden on developed societies, the calls for a change in economic policy and even the monetary system become louder and increasingly…

Cumulative emissions accounting for carbon-dioxide (CO2) is founded on recognition that global warming in Earth System Models (ESMs) is roughly proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, regardless of emissions pathway. However, cumulative…

The aim of this work is to propose an end-by-end modeling framework to evaluate the risk measures of a bank's portfolio of collateralized loans in an economy subject to the climate transition. The economy, organized in sectors, is driven by…

We study how the climate transition through a low-carbon economy, implemented by carbon pricing, propagates in a credit portfolio and precisely describe how carbon price dynamics affects credit risk measures such as probability of default,…

We introduce the logistic model of consumption growth, which captures a negative feedback loop preventing an unlimited growth of consumption due to finite biophysical resources of our planet. This simple dynamic model allows for derivation…

Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the…

All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these…

The initial Climate-Extended Risk Model (CERM) addresses the estimate of climate-related financial risk embedded within a bank loan portfolio, through a climatic extension of the Basel II IRB model. It uses a Gaussian copula model…