相关论文: Time-varying Vine Copula model based on R-Vine str…

We demonstrate how the uncertainty of parameter point estimates can be assessed in a maximum likelihood framework in order to prevent overfitting and erroneous detection of time-inhomogeneity. The class of models we consider are regular…

Regular vine distributions which constitute a flexible class of multivariate dependence models are discussed. Since multivariate copulae constructed through pair-copula decompositions were introduced to the statistical community, interest…

We employ and examine vine copulas in modeling symmetric and asymmetric dependency structures and forecasting financial returns. We analyze the asset allocations performed during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and test different portfolio…

We propose a class of dynamic vine copula models. This is an extension of static vine copulas and a generalization of dynamic C-vine and D-vine copulas studied by Almeida et al (2016) and Goel and Mehra (2019). Within this class, we allow…

Temporal, spatial or spatio-temporal probabilistic models are frequently used for weather forecasting. The D-vine (drawable vine) copula quantile regression (DVQR) is a powerful tool for this application field, as it can automatically…

Quantile regression, that is the prediction of conditional quantiles, has steadily gained importance in statistical modeling and financial applications. The authors introduce a new semiparametric quantile regression method based on…

Time-varying dependence is often modeled with dynamic correlations or Gaussian graphical models, but multivariate systems can change through tail behavior, asymmetry, or conditional structure even when correlations are nearly stable. We…

We introduce an extension of R-vine copula models for the purpose of spatial dependency modeling and model based prediction at unobserved locations. The newly derived spatial R-vine model combines the flexibility of vine copulas with the…

Vine copulas are flexible dependence models using bivariate copulas as building blocks. If the parameters of the bivariate copulas in the vine copula depend on covariates, one obtains a conditional vine copula. We propose an extension for…

Modeling dependence in high dimensional systems has become an increasingly important topic. Most approaches rely on the assumption of a multivariate Gaussian distribution such as statistical models on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). They…

Vine copulas are a flexible tool for multivariate non-Gaussian distributions. For data from an observational study where the explanatory variables and response variables are measured together, a proposed vine copula regression method uses…

Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and across time points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence and can conveniently capture both types of dependence in the same model. We derive the…

The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is revised by modeling the joint distribution of the four partial-volatility terms therein involved. Namely, today's, yesterday's, last week's and last month's volatility components. The joint…

Analysis of multivariate time series is a common problem in areas like finance and economics. The classical tool for this purpose are vector autoregressive models. These however are limited to the modeling of linear and symmetric…

Vine copulas are a flexible way for modeling dependences using only pair-copulas as building blocks. However if the number of variables grows the problem gets fast intractable. For dealing with this problem Brechmann at al. proposed the…

Vine copulas are sophisticated models for multivariate distributions and are increasingly used in machine learning. To facilitate their integration into modern ML pipelines, we introduce the vine computational graph, a DAG that abstracts…

In statistics, time-to-event analysis methods traditionally focus on the estimation of hazards. In recent years, machine learning methods have been proposed to directly predict the event times. We propose a method based on vine copula…

We introduce a new goodness-of-fit test for regular vine (R-vine) copula models. R-vine copulas are a very flexible class of multivariate copulas based on a pair-copula construction (PCC). The test arises from the information matrix…

The statistical analysis of univariate quantiles is a well developed research topic. However, there is a need for research in multivariate quantiles. We construct bivariate (conditional) quantiles using the level curves of vine copula based…

An approach to modelling volatile financial return series using stationary d-vine copula processes combined with Lebesgue-measure-preserving transformations known as v-transforms is proposed. By developing a method of stochastically…